The latest World Energy Outlook from the International Energy Agency is very optimistic. In all the new IEA scenarios, growth in global energy demand slows thanks to efficiency gains, electrification and a rapid buildout of renewables. In the STEPS scenario, based on the current prevailing policy settings in countries around the world, the IEA claims that ‘clean energy meets virtually all growth in energy demand in aggregate in the STEPS between 2023 and 2035, leading to an overall peak in demand for all three fossil fuels before 2030, although trends vary widely across countries at different stages of economic and energy development’.
However, the IEA adds that almost everywhere ‘electricity demand grows much faster than overall energy demand, thanks to existing uses, notably cooling, and new ones such as electric mobility and data centres’. It says that ‘by 2030, nearly every other car sold in the world is electric, although delays in the roll-out of charging infrastructure or in policy implementation could lead to slower growth.’
On the power supply side however, ‘low-emissions sources, led by renewables, increase faster than electricity demand in all scenarios, thereby pushing down the share of fossil fuels in electricity generation. In 2023, renewables provided 30% of global electricity supply, while fossil fuels edged down to 60%, their lowest share in 50 years. By 2035, the share of solar PV and wind in electricity generation exceeds 40% globally in the STEPS, and by 2050 increases to nearly 60%. The share of nuclear power remains close to 10% in all scenarios.’ Renewables lead the expansion in electricity generation, and ‘there is scope to go even faster: today’s solar manufacturing capacity hovers around 1,100 GW per year, potentially allowing for deployment almost three-times higher than in 2023’.
So the IEA paints a quite positive overall picture: ‘Despite growing needs for energy services, more efficiency and electrification are slowing the rate of global energy demand growth while the uptake of clean technologies like renewables & electric vehicles lead to a peak in demand for oil, natural gas and coal by 2030, though more clean energy investment is needed to accelerate CO2 emissions reductions’.
A bit too optimistic on energy saving and demand growth we fear, but otherwise a welcome positive view of possible ways forward. Though it does make clear that a lot more storage & grid interconnections will be needed. All adding to the cost. Still it’s a very different view from that of some deep greens like Richard Heinberg, who, as I reported in an earlier post, fear that we will lose the battle against climate change and ecosystem destruction unless we make more radical changes in our approach to energy supply and demand. A fascinating debate.
Meanwhile, although it says nuclear capacity may grow to some extent, led by China, the IEA doesn’t see the global nuclear share in power output expanding much if at all- renewables vastly outpace it. However, there are still nuclear hopefuls. Some of them seem nostalgic for the past when, allegedly, nuclear was great and they think it can be again- with Small Modular Reactors leading a revival. Some seem very optimistic about SMRs delivering power soon. For example, Google is reportedly looking to 2030 to install the first of 6 or 7 units from Californian developer Kairos to power its data centres, and US owned Last Energy is planning to build four 20MW SMR units on the site of an old coal plant in South Wales, to deliver power directly to industrial customers. It says it needs no public funding for its plants, and it aims for them to be operational by 2027. Perhaps even more surprisingly, a company in Czechia is evidently planning to place orders for 2 Rolls Royce SMRs in 2025- long before the as yet un-built Rolls design might get UK regulatory approval for UK use.
In reality, even if all goes well, it seem unlikely that any SMR will be running commercially anywhere in the world until the early to mid 2030’s. Even enthusiasts admit that progress has been a bit slow. Interestingly, by comparison, as the IEA recognises, wind and PV solar are roaring ahead and in terms of new renewable energy technology, floating offshore wind could start expanding seriously in the UK by 2030 and reach 40GW by 2050, according to a new study. Maybe a better bet in the ‘new’ energy technology race than SMRs! Tidal stream devices too - already proven at scale in the UK, with costs falling. But who knows, there may yet be technology and cost breakthroughs from the various new start-up companies that have entered the SMR the field. Although not all are doing well.
One new driver for SMR enthusiasm, as indicated by Google’s entry in to the field, is the growth of energy hungry data centres and the use of ever expanding Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems, with, for example, Amazon also pumping money into research- £500m into the X energy SMR project. But that, at best, is some way off – they say 2039. So too presumably, going a bit larger, is the idea from Microsoft of restarting the old Three Mile Island reactor in Pennsylvania - once the scene of a major nuclear accident. Perhaps just as odd is the idea of re-starting work on the failed and abandoned (and now rusting) V.C. Summer plant in South Carolina. They must be getting desperate. Though if you really are that far gone, how about AI powered by nuclear fusion!
Not everyone is keen on AI, and certainly it would be sad if it turns out to be as energy hungry as some claim - arguably not something on which we should waste precious renewable energy, or use to justify nuclear. But then again some say that the net impact of AI will be positive- it can save carbon by increasing the efficiency of energy used in our power systems. Another fascinating debate. And to widen it even more, the usually quite conservative New Civil Engineer journal has been talking about the worrying idea of using SMRs to make materials for nuclear weapons.... a risk also noted in a Nature paper. Though some countries may actually be keen on that..
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