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Renewable capacity ups- and price downs

Solar is booming- accelerating ahead exponentially, with well over 1.8TW already now installed globally. According to Carbon Brief/ IEA   it’s set to overtake coal in power generation by 2030, taking over the lead from wind. That’s mainly since PV cells are getting cheaper, rapidly so, and are relatively easy to install in solar farms and also, to a lesser degree, on roof tops, although that’s usually a bit more expensive. Averaged levelised costs have been put by IRENA at around $0.043/kWh - see chart below .    There are land use and impact issues, but also agrisolar options for limiting them. In addition, floating units are also being developed for use on reservoirs, so avoiding land use and reducing fresh water evaporation. The cooling effect also improves the efficiency of PV cells in warm climates.  Meanwhile, wind also continues to boom, and is set to double up , adding its second TW capacity by 2030. That’s mainly driven by onshore wind, with (see chart) its ...
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Conflicting views of energy costs

UK gas and electricity consumer prices will rise by 2% under the latest cap announced by energy regulator Ofgem, so that typical households will pay £1,755 a year, up £35 a year on the current cap, or £2.93 a month. It’s not a huge increase, but it is on top of high prices.  Gas fixed costs have risen slightly, but about £1.42 a month of the increase will be used to fund the government's extension of the Warm Home Discount, giving money back off winter bills for some people on some benefits. Though about £1.23 extra a month will go to the cost of ensuring a stable electricity supply, to balance when there is too much and too little power in the system. That especially met with a lot of negative reaction, with the Daily Mail saying ‘Wind farms are driving YOUR electricity bills up’, the Telegraph opining similarly. Well yes, wind farms have negotiated contracts so that they are compensated when their power is not used, but that is often because of lack of a proper flexible grid sy...

Trump triumphs- over the planet

US President Donald Trump has pretty consistently been opposed to renewable energy and policies seeking to promote its expansion as a response climate change.  Amongst other things his ‘one big beautiful bill’ phases out tax credits for wind and solar energy and opens up federal land and water for oil and gas drilling, while creating new federal support for coal.  Though it may be presented as a tax saving measure: the bill’s cuts to clean energy tax incentives are expected to save the Treasury $499 billion. But Trump also uses wider anti-green invective.  In one his key new Presidential Orders he says renewable energy is ‘unreliable, expensive, displaced more dependable energy sources, dependent on foreign-controlled supply chains & harmful to the natural environment & electric grid’.  It really feels like a vindictive attack. For example, the US Department of the Interior may no longer issue permits for wind or solar on federal lands unless they generate ...

Artificial Intelligence - expect big energy changes

While there are worries about energy use and potential job losses associated with AI in some sectors, the optimists are quite positive, even evangelical about the future.  For example, Carl Ennis , Siemens CEO for UK and Ireland, says that ‘the potential for AI to lead the green technological revolution is especially relevant when it comes to enabling a more resilient and responsive energy system. This is essential if UK businesses are to play their part in the transition towards net zero and a greener future’. In effect he says ‘AI turns traditional, reactive grid management into a proactive, intelligent system that can respond faster and more efficiently to the evolving demands of the UK’s low-carbon energy transition.’ And beyond that, he says the ability provided by advanced AI to conduct extended research and development before concepts are taken into the real world could have a transformative impact on the UK’s energy system, and beyond, potentially into ‘multiple areas of bu...

UK ‘Green light’ least cost 2050 energy scenario

Prof. Mark Barrett at University College London has produced an update of his Green Light UK 2050 scenario, with a few additions from the 2023 version. The conclusions remain the same: renewables can supply just about all power needed. But some of the new details are interesting: aviation can’t be decarbonised easily, so we have to compensate with atmospheric carbon removal- Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage (DACCS). In 2050, his scenario has offshore wind generating 931 TWh, which is 83% of total generation. Solar generates 118 TWh and onshore wind 40 TWh. Nuclear generates 25 TWh or 2% of total and there is 57 GW of flexible generation plant which outputs 3 TWh, operating at a capacity factor of under 1%. He says that ‘an alternative assumption that flexible generation uses stored hydrogen is also modelled but optimisation shows this to increase costs’.  He notes that ‘in the least cost 2050 systems 20-30% of potential generation is spilled, and this is, at first sight, a s...

A golden nuclear future: Sizewell C gets the go ahead

The UK government has decided that the huge new 3.2 GW Sizewell C nuclear plant proposed by EDF for the Suffolk coast should go ahead . It will be costly- the estimated construction cost is now put at £38 billion, up from an earlier estimate of £20bn.  The UK government will be the largest shareholder, with a 44.9% stake, while EDF’s share has fallen to 12.5%. Centrica will take a 15% share, while La Caisse, a Canadian investment group, will hold 20% and investment manager Amber will take an initial 7.6% stake. UK power consumers will start paying a share of the construction costs under the ‘RAB’ Regulated Asset Base funding system as soon as building starts- presumably later this year. They and taxpayers may also end up facing any cost overruns due to delays.  As the BBC noted ‘The project will be funded with a mixture of equity and debt - £8.8bn in equity from the government and the other investors, and £36.6bn in debt that will be provided by the National Wealth Fund (NWF)...

UK public support for renewables falls- slightly

 The latest Public Attitudes Tracker from the UK Department of Energy Security and Net Zero says UK public support for renewables is down from 87% in 2021 to 80% now, with opposition rising from 1 to 4%, with solar and wind loosing some support. Solar is at 86%, down from 88% last year, offshore wind is 80%, down from 83%, on shore wind is 73%, down from 77%. Only 37% say they’d be happy with an onshore wind farm nearby, down from 43%, while just 47% support local solar farms, down from 53%, with local opposition at 14%, up from 9%. Crucially, only 69% believe the renewables industry delivers economic benefits to the UK, down from 74%.  You might see that as a Farage effect, given that his Reform party is strongly anti-renewables and very critical of the Labour governments Net Zero policy -  a  political view now it seems shared by the Conservative party .  There does seem to have been more media coverage of views like this, with local opposition to solar farm...