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Showing posts from September, 2022

Material limits

Simon Michaux, Associate Research Professor of Geometallurgy, Geological Survey of Finland, says that we do not have enough metals and materials to build the new sustainable energy system needed to replace fossil fuel use. ‘The quantity of metal required to make just one generation of renewable tech units to replace fossil fuels is much larger than first thought. Current mining production of these metals is not even close to meeting demand. Current reported mineral reserves are also not enough in size. Most concerning is copper as one of the flagged shortfalls. Exploration for more at required volumes will be difficult.’  So overall he doesn’t think we can make the transition, certainly not fast . We have built ‘an industrial ecosystem of unprecedented size and complexity, that took more than a century to build with the support of the highest calorifically dense source of cheap energy the world has ever known (oil) in abundant quantities, with easily available credit, and unlimite...

The shelling of Zap

The 6 reactor Zaporizhia nuclear complex (‘Zap’) in Ukraine, which has been occupied by Russian troops since March, has come under repeated shellfire attack, sparking fears of a major nuclear accident.  The main reactor buildings are relatively robust, but no one designs nuclear plants to resists concerted artillery fire. And although the spent fuel cooling ponds are protected in the main complex, the solid waste storage area is outside the main building and less unprotected. So there are risks , and given that grid links in, as well as out, are also vulnerable, power cut off is a key one. Then the reactor core and spent fuel cooling systems would have to rely on diesel back up pumps, and their fuel stocks may be limited. We could be headed for a Fukushima-like melt down situation.   Given terrifying prospects like this, and with lurid reports of possibly  imminent disaster in the press, at the end of August, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director G...

An energy plan from Liz Truss

Power prices have roared ahead in the UK, much more so that almost anywhere else in Europe and they look like accelerating further- some said overall domestic energy prices could reach £6000 p.a. or more next spring. Something obviously had to be done. But despite the clear indication from Carbon Brief that green energy support schemes added only a very small amount to consumer bills, the governments new energy crisis plan included cuts to green levies, in support of its price freeze. It also included expansion of fossil fuel extraction, with shale fracking now to be allowed, this inevitably adding to emissions.   Liz Truss made clear in her launch speech that there here will be no windfall tax on power producers/suppliers, but prices would be held at £2,500 for 2 years. So she claimed domestic consumers will in effect, get £1000 on average off their annual bills and ‘vulnerable sectors’ in industry will get support too. Borrowing and financing cost details for all this wil...

Energy costs and climate costs

‘Soaring wholesale gas prices are behind 96% of the increase in UK household bills between last summer and next Spring’ says Simon Evans from Carbon Brief . So, basically, Green levies are not to blame. He says they ‘will fall below 3% of bills’.  Indeed, given the way the Contracts for Difference (CfD) system is constructed , with the cost of wind and solar generation now at an all-time low, well under the gas-defined market price, consumers should actually benefit.  As Boris Johnson noted in his farewell speech ‘offshore wind is nine times cheaper than gas’.  Unfortunately though, there may still be problems for some renewable energy projects, and, although some generation costs will fall, most energy retail costs will still rise. As Simon Evans makes clear, we are currently facing a series of unprecedented energy-related shocks, including post-Covid demand surges, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and a range of climate change impacts, all leading to higher gas prices. Th...