Much of China’s best wind resource and some of its largest solar capacity is in the wrong place, the North and West - far from most large industrial and population centres. It’s taking time to deal with the resultant regional power imbalances when using these locally variable sources, which can lead to local renewable curtailment- the wasteful dumping of power that can’t be got to users. The context is very different in the UK, but curtailment is also an issue, and the solutions being developed seem similar, although with some different planning issues emerging. In China, oddly given its centralised state, there does not seem to be enough regulatory planning, in the UK arguably there is too much, slowing down progress.
In an interesting review of the situation in China, relayed by OilPrice.com, Zero Hedge says ‘the government aims to reduce curtailment through increased long-distance transmission links and better coordination of generation plans across provinces’, with, in addition, the solution to locally variable wind and solar output being to ‘smooth out fluctuations across a larger number of generators spread over much larger areas of the country, which will require more transmission and better scheduling’. To that end ‘China's State Grid Corporation has constructed a network of ultra-high voltage transmission lines to move power thousands of kilometres from surplus areas in the west and north to deficit areas in the east and south.’
It was certainly needed. Zero Hedge reports that ‘in 2016, the national utilisation rate for new energy sources fell to a record low of 84%, prompting the central government to launch a "Clean Energy Absorption Action Plan" to reduce the waste of renewable resources. The plan focused on improvements in local distribution, long-distance inter-provincial transmission, and energy trading to reduce the curtailment of new energy generation. By 2023, the utilisation rate for wind power had climbed to a remarkable 97.3% and solar had reached 98%.’
However it say ‘with rapid deployment of renewable capacity the problem of abandonment is re-emerging, with wind utilisation down to 96.1% & solar down to 96% in the first five months of 2024. The response is likely to be similar, with renewed emphasis on integrating renewables at local level & more transmission capacity to move surplus power across provincial boundaries’.
Although Zero Hedge says that ‘in many ways, China's long-distance ultra-high voltage transmission system is an extraordinary engineering achievement, likely to be copied in other parts of the world as more and more renewables are connected to grids’ it is ‘still struggling to forge a truly integrated nationwide system from fragmented provincial-level utilities that pursue their own priorities.’
The situation in the UK is somewhat different. It’s small and crowded, although it is still the case the a lot of wind capacity is remote from centers of population, offshore wind especially. Indeed that might be seen by some as one of its selling points, given the NIMBY sentiments of at least some of the population. But with new offshore wind projects proliferating, the new Labour Government is faced with local objections to the new grid links needed across environmentally sensitive regions like East Anglia. On shore wind development, a possible alternative option, has been all blocked in recent years on the basis of some local objections, but the new Government has announced major revisions to planning policies on onshore wind projects in England, effectively eliminating the specific regulatory obstacles that had been put in place by the Tories.
In her first speech, new Chancellor Rachel Reaves said that, in addition to ‘ending the absurd ban on new onshore wind in England... we will also go further and consult on bringing onshore wind back into the Nationally Significant Infrastructure Projects regime, meaning decisions on large developments will be taken nationally not locally’. Provocative stuff! But while local concerns do have to be taken on board, with careful consultation over appropriate scale and siting, pretty clearly local planning of renewables had to change. As Cornwall Insight noted, 63% of renewable energy project applications between 2018 & 2023 failed in the planning stage, with only 20% currently moving forward.
Of course some say that the way to avoid problems like this is to go nuclear, but amongst other things, as Lord Turner, the chair of the UK Energy Transitions Commissions, has just warned, that would likely be high cost. It would also open up its own local planning sensitivities. Large plants, like the one proposed for Sizewell in Suffolk, will require even larger grid links across East Anglia, while it is not clear if anyone will want live near one of the proposed small modular reactors, when and if they emerge.
In China, there is in general more room, and, sadly, local community sensitivities may also count for less and it is certainly pushing ahead with some new nuclear, large and small, but on nowhere near the same scale as its vast renewables expansion. As I noted in my last post, that’s been its main response to the fact that is does not have its own oil or gas and wants to cut coal use to stop emission rising. Something it’s finding hard, but which the UK has mostly been able to do well.
Clearly, both countries face some urgent energy planning problems. In a sign of the importance attached by China to the grid issue, Zero Hedge noted that, in February, the Communist Party's Politburo held a group study session on new energy technology and energy security, bringing together top central and regional leaders, to discuss, amongst other things, boosting ‘the grid's capacity capability to integrate, distribute and regulate clean energy.’ And in March, President Xi Jinping stressed need for ‘coordinated development of the energy sector’. And as I noted above, back in the UK, the new Labour administration has also recognised the green energy policy challenge, with grid upgrades being seen by the industry as an important aspect. China’s politics may not be to Western tastes, but maybe, in terms of technological practice in this area, there may be much that they can learn from each other, including the efficient use, integration, transmission and balancing of green energy.
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