UK Renewables hit 50%- hope for the future

Renewables reached a historic peak supplying more than 40% of UK electricity generation during the last quarter of last year, and almost 50% at times, according to Drax Electric Insights. Most of that was from offshore wind. It was helped by a decrease in electricity demand by 5% compared to the previous year, attributed in part to mild weather conditions and high energy prices.                                                            

And the prospects for the future look good. While new offshore wind power development had faced some problems in the UK last year, it now seems to be recovering. Under the new Crown Estate leasing round, three floating wind farms will be located off the coast of South Wales and South West England, with a combined capacity of up to 4.5GW. This will be the first time floating wind farms have been deployed on a commercial scale. SSE Renewables has also received planning permission in principle for its 4.1GW  Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm off the coast from Edinburgh. And on shore, a 29 turbine wind farm has got the go ahead in the Scottish Highlands. More onshore projects in England and Wales will likely be one outcome of a widely expected change in government!  

The economic turmoil and cost of living crisis has nevertheless left its mark. The long running, world-renown Centre for Alternative Technology in north Wales had to close its visitor centre and some fear that other bits may have to go too. That would be tragic. CAT pioneered many of eco-tech ideas we now take for granted . But one-time CAT guru Peter Harper hopes it may not all be bad news. Let’s hope he is right. 

Meantime, the adverse UK political and economic climate also seems to have had impact on green jobs, which, according to a PWC survey, fell 26% last year. Hopefully that will improve, as it seems to have done already in Scotland, as the benefits of renewables become clearer, and, in line with the COP28 agreement, the UK tries to triple renewable capacity by 2030. However, there are rival fields. A new report by UNRENCO and the British Science Association, looks to expanding opportunities for young people in the nuclear field. We shall see, but, just now, nuclear does seem to be facing financial problems in the UK, with China’s CGN halting its funding for UK’s part-built Hinkley Point C. It may yet restart it, but if not EDF will have to fund the completion of the £32.7bn plant alone. The UK government had earlier taken over CGN’s initial stake in the proposed Sizewell C project, after concerns about over-reliance on Chinese funding. Maybe China has had enough of the UK and also of Hinkley’s overrun costs- although in fact CGN was contractually allowed to only meet any cost overruns on a voluntary basis. And it’s evidently decided not to. Though of course it will still own a share of any profits, if the project still goes ahead... 

The year ended with a mixed outcome from COP28 and an annual UKERC review which talked of their needing to be a ‘step change’ in policy.  It’s hard to disagree with that- tripling renewables and doubling efficiency savings won’t be easy. And in the weeks ahead this post will try to chart how it’s going, with one thing to watch for being the final resolution of the long running battle over the relative merits of heat pumps and hydrogen for home heating.

In late December, the UK government’s long delayed consultative Future Home Standards report emerged. It saw ‘no practical way to allow the installation of fossil fuel boilers while also delivering significant carbon savings and ‘zero-carbon ready’ homes. As such, we do not expect fossil fuel heating, such as gas, hybrid heat pumps and hydrogen-ready boilers, will meet these standards’ . So that it seems means a block is proposed on the use of fossil gas-derived blue hydrogen- with heat pumps winning out as a proposed alternative. It also says ‘The standards proposed are also unlikely to allow the installation of biofuel systems, including wood and manufactured solid fuels.’ Instead, ‘new low carbon communal and district heat networks will likely be the preferred way of providing heating and hot water to blocks of flats under the Future Homes Standard’.   It notes that ‘heat networks can be highly efficient ways of delivering heat because the heat pumps on the network can be paired with thermal stores allowing the heat to be produced at times of low-cost, low-carbon electricity; such function also reduces peak demand on the local electricity grid. The heat pumps in heat networks often have a higher seasonal coefficient of performance and can be run to optimise their coefficient of performance’. 

There are however some uncertainties to resolve, with some critics not being convinced that the proposals add up to much in terms of overall energy/carbon saving.  While heat pumps, large and small, clearly have their place, it’s not clear if, under the new rules, renewable power derived-green hydrogen can also be used for some home heating. While some home trial projects have been already been halted after local opposition, there are still 11 green hydrogen heating projects planned, and they will no doubt object if they are to be blocked. 

As it is, the consultation just specifies air sourced heat pumps, although, along with heat networks, roof top PV solar is also mentioned as an option. However, it is claimed that ‘while the efficiency of solar PV panels has improved substantially over the last decade, the pace of electricity grid decarbonisation means that solar PV panels make a relatively small contribution to the carbon savings of individual homes compared with the switch to low-carbon heating’. That will also no doubt been challenged- not least by those who want PV made mandatory on all new buildings and by those convinced that there is a case of using it to run domestic heat pumps.  

Finally, the consultation doesn’t look at pricing policy, which is a pity, since a key issue for consumers, whatever the energy type used, is how energy service charges should be managed in future. Efforts may be made by companies to cut kWh energy supply charges, via new green supply tech,  and consumers can cut energy uses, but the suppliers can raise service charges/kW, and  there is nothing consumers can do about that. So it’s a big issue for consumers at present given the high energy costs.  Green power and heat may be cheaper to make, but if it still costs consumers more to use the system, then, reasonably enough, they will not back it.