Hydrogen- settled?

There has been a debate over whether we should use zero carbon green hydrogen, produced by the electrolysis of water using renewable power, or blue (fossil-derived) hydrogen, made with CCS to reduce emissions. Or even pink hydrogen, using nuclear generated electricity.  There has also been a debate over whether, whatever its source, hydrogen should be used for heating- heat pumps are said to be far more efficient. Plenty of issues then, and, within the EU, policy battles over boiler bans and nuclear, have rather slowed things down in this area.  

Even so, the wider picture is that many projects of various types are planned, with REN 21s latest global renewables review reporting that hydrogen projects announced by the end of 2022 ‘would lead to an installed electrolyser capacity of 134-240GW by 2030’.  Some of them will involve making e-fuels for transport, using CO2 captured from the air, or industry captured CO2. Lots of room for debate there.  And on the plans for hydrogen pipelines from Africa to the EU also.

With support for heating projects being reconsidered, although some deviant projects may still go ahead, some sort of overall consensus seems to be emerging, with a new report from Deloitte saying that, although other uses will boom, the market share of hydrogen for heating will be ‘under 1%’ by 2050. Overall though they conclude that that  ‘hydrogen can play a paramount role in sectors where emissions are hard to abate’, with the clean hydrogen market growing to nearly 600 MtH2eq by 2050, equivalent to more than 85% of the global electricity consumption in 2019.

On which way will go by sector, they say that, by 2050, demand for clean hydrogen in industry will top 250 MtH2eq, or 42% of total demand. It can ‘help to decarbonize current feedstock uses in the chemical industry, including producing ammonia for fertilizers and methanol for plastics and clothing. In the iron and steel sector, pure hydrogen can be used as a reduction agent in direct reduced steelmaking processes.’ 

The transport sector will they say  ‘likely require 215 MtH2eq of clean hydrogen by 2050, 36% of total demand for clean hydrogen’, derivatives being ‘particularly valuable to help decarbonize shipping (as ammonia & methanol) and aviation, where electricity and pure hydrogen may not be viable solutions.’ But pure hydrogen ‘can be consumed in fuel cells or internal combustion engines in the road freight sector, complementing electric vehicles especially for long-haul freight requirements’. They say hydrogen can also play a key role in the power system for energy storage and flexibility services, another 125 MtH2eq by 2050, about one-fifth of total demand- with stored hydrogen balancing excess supply and demand peaks. 

The injection of hydrogen into the existing natural gas transport & distribution network ‘can be a potential solution to slightly lower the carbon footprint of gas consumption in buildings,’ but, Deloitte suggests a limited role for blending ‘as electrification rapidly displaces natural gas consumption in this sector, in a net-zero environment.’ Moreover, ‘hydrogen transport & distribution require a strict safety protocol, while the efficiency of heating buildings via hydrogen is limited’. So they conclude that ‘hydrogen demand in buildings remains marginal- below 1% of total needs in 2050’. 

Not everyone will agree with that, but Energy Insight calculated that, in the International Energy Agency’s Net Zero Scenario, hydrogen would only supply around 1.98% of all space and water heating by 2050.  In terms of which type of hydrogen, Deloitte’s conclusion are different to some others which see the use of blue hydrogen dominating initially.  By contrast, Deloitte see green hydrogen ‘dominating from the beginning’, with the blue share falling off after 2040 to a relatively small amount (around 15%) by 2050. No nuclear hydrogen is mentioned. That is perhaps not surprising given the high cost of nuclear plants, with the emerging hydrogen market being market driven, especially the crucial export market, which Deloitte see as emerging for hydrogen derivatives. It notes that ‘hydrogen derivatives can be easier to contain and transport than the pure molecule. Further conversion to another carrier is likely unnecessary for hydrogen derivatives (ammonia, methanol, or SAF), such that imports, even from very long distances, can be more competitive than domestic supply, from local or imported pure hydrogen. As a result, some of the most competitive suppliers are more likely to source hydrogen derivatives as final products’. 

Not everyone will welcome more tankers carrying energy products or new pipelines, with local production perhaps being preferred, but that depends on having sufficient local green power resources and not everywhere will be blessed in that way. So, while local generation is supported where viable, Deloitte also looks to a global energy market and to major changes as fossil fuels are mostly abandoned. 

Although it may turn out to be different in detail, we are on the way to something like that. REN21 in their latest global renewable resource report, has renewables supplying almost 30% of global power now and nearly 12% of global heat. That’s a good start, but with hopefully very much more to come, as costs fall, with hydrogen providing some of the glue to hold it all together. But probably not for heating, as no less that the UK energy minister has recently confirmed!  

That presumably means that the UK, like others, must go hard for heat pumps. The good news for the UK is that a new UK survey of installations in the last year found that over 80% of UK users were very or fairly satisfied with their heating performance. But UK take-up is still slow, with, given the high cost of grid power at power at present, and their relatively high installation costs, heat pumps still not being very competitive.  Running a domestic heat pump direct from roof top PV would be a way to avoid using grid power, but it might not be any cheaper, and using PV is not so viable in winter, when heating is most needed- although it could be part of a multi-source approach, as has been tested in Germany. Other backup options may also be needed for heat pumps in winter, with electric heaters being the most obvious, assuming the gas mains is no longer available. 

The UK has relied on fossil gas for most domestic heating for many decades, as have some EU countries, but now, thanks in part to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, that is changing. It will be interesting to see how it all pans out now and the role that hydrogen does eventually play in each sector. We can expect some hiccups on the way, as markets adjust- not all changes can be achieved rapidly and some options may prove unviable. But big changes do seem likely.