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Energy resource limits

In an interesting article in the Ecologist, Gareth Dale argues that the rising cost of plundering nature presents major problems for the continued expansion of capitalism. For example, he says the ‘energy return on energy invested’ (EROI) for fossil-fuel extraction is plummeting: ‘In plain English, ever more energy is consumed in squeezing each drop of oil from the bowels of the earth’. He notes that a recent study has found that, at present, over 15% of the oil extracted was being use to extract more oil and that this will rise as easily accessed reserves deplete.  It’s the same for nuclear – as high grade ore reserves deplete, the energy cost of mining/processing uranium rise, with EROI ratios falling from 15:1 as now, to maybe 5:1 or less over time.  Meantime the EROIs for renewables are mostly higher and improving- e.g. solar was poor in the early days, but is now at around 25:1, wind is around 50:1 on good sites, and may get to 80:1 offshore, hydro is at around 200:1. Th...

Pipe Dreams: in praise of CHP/DH/heat nets

The UK energy industry is in something of a mess. Small power companies are crashing, the big ones seem locked into ever rising costs. How did it get this way? We need to look back a bit at recent UK history to understand what has happened.  The newly nationalised UK power sector had expanded after the second world war, with large 2GW coal fired plants becoming the industry standard, and new ones being added, year by year, as demand for power from the coal plants seemed to continually rise. But then, in the late 1970’s, it stopped rising, and new plant orders halted. The industry, and the big power construction companies like Parsons and Clarke Chapman in Newcastle, never recovered from the loss of what had seemed to be an automatic 2GW p.a. forward ordering programme.  The market was changing, and new technologies were also emerging- gas fired combined cycle turbines and new nuclear plants. The Thatcher government elected in 1979 was keen on the latter, but in the event was o...

A Power system for all seasons- using hydrogen

A study by the UK Energy Networks Association (ENA) claims that production and storage of green hydrogen is a key to a sustainable energy future since it enables seasonal variations in renewable energy supply and demand to be balanced out. Moreover, it claims that this would dramatically reduce the need for so much excess generation capacity- by up to 76%.     It says ‘a net-zero energy system that is largely based on wind but includes no green hydrogen storage could be a viable solution for the warmer months from a system resilience perspective, but in colder months the amount of wind capacity required to meet demand and maintain resilience would be extremely high and therefore less efficient. Our analysis indicates that 500-600GW of installed wind capacity would be required to deliver a resilient energy system without green hydrogen storage’.  By contrast ‘Green hydrogen can be produced at times when renewable supply exceeds demand and unlike electricity it can be...

Nuclear Power- Global Prospects

Despite its economic problems, construction delays and cost overshoots, the prospect for nuclear power have been talked up of late. It is being portrayed as a way to respond to climate change and ensure continued energy security in a world where energy demand continues to rise, the use of fossil fuels is increasingly reduced and the use of variable renewables increases. The global lobby group, the World Nuclear Association , says that nuclear generation globally will grow by 2.6% annually, reaching 615 GWe by 2040, up from 394 GW now. Indeed, its upper scenario sees nuclear capacity growing faster, to 839 GWe in 2040. Even under the Lower Scenario, a steady increase is seen over the entire reporting period.  That is all very optimistic judging by the views presented in the latest edition of the independent World Nuclear Industry Status Report , which assesses the status and trends of the international nuclear industry. It reports that, in 2020, nuclear power generation output ...

New UK National Policy Statements on Energy - but not nuclear!

The UK is revamping its energy plans, with, as noted in an earlier post, a new Net Zero Policy now out. In parallel it is revising its National Policy Statements (NPSs) on energy-related infrastructure planning.  National Policy Statements are overviews designated under the Planning Act 2008 to provide guidance for decision-makers on the application of government policy when determining development consent for major projects. So they set the ‘on the ground’ reality of policy.  The current suite of NPS on energy were designated by the Department of Energy and Climate Change in 2011, and are now quite dated. The full set consists of the overarching EN1 NPS, EP 2 on Fossil fuel electricity generating infrastructure, EN3 on Renewable Energy Infrastructure, EN4 on Gas supply infrastructure & gas and oil pipelines, EN5 on Electricity Networks Infrastructure and EN6 on Nuclear Power Generation. The 2020 Energy White Paper Powering our Net Zero Future, committed the government to...

COP 26- coal down but not out

The Conference of Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in Glasgow in November saw some new headline emission targets, though with target dates that seem very far off- China and Saudi Arabia said they would aim to be net zero carbon by 2060, while India said it would try to get there by 2070! But around 40 countries did pledge to phase out coal well before then, some by 2030, others (the poorer ones) by 2040. And China confirmed that it would try to bring emissions to a peak before 2030, while India said it would reduce carbon intensity by 45% by 2030.   However, while the overall targets still looked weak, there were some other commitments . A Global Methane Pledge was backed by 105 countries, including the US, Japan & Canada, supporting a 30% cut by 2030 in emissions of methane , a greenhouse gas responsible for ~30% of global warming. 100 countries, including Brazil, pledged to end Deforestation by 2030- but Indonesia later dropped out. More than 40 c...

UK Heating and Building Strategy

The UK governments new long awaited Net Zero Carbon heating and building plan says that ‘ultimately, Net Zero will mean gradually, but completely, moving away from burning fossil fuels for heating. Which is why we are setting the ambition of phasing out the installation of new natural gas boilers from 2035.’ However, given the potential for backlashes against the scale and cost of what needs to be be done, and this high level commitment in particular, it wants to move slowly on choosing a replacement. So although the headline story is that it backs heat pumps, the strategy is relatively cautious and nuanced on that.   It says that ‘the future is likely to see a mix of low-carbon technologies used for heating: electrification of heat for buildings using hydronic (air-to-water or ground-to-water) heat pumps, heat networks and potentially switching the natural gas in the grid to low-carbon hydrogen’. However, it goes on, ‘while there is work to be done to identify the best solut...