Renewables now supply over 52% of UK power, and are booming. For example, onshore wind power capacity entering the planning system ‘has more than tripled since Labour dropped the blocks on onshore developments within days of coming to power just over two years ago’ according to the Guardian, and its onward development could save UK £3bn a year. Offshore wind and solar are booming too and can make further major contributions. Biomass is also making a contribution and more is possible. Although there are concerns about the sustainability of using imported forestry products, biogas produced from food and farm waste is a locally sourced option, with room for growth in AD generally. Tidal energy is also under development with projects in Scotland and Wales, and there’s a new geothermal project in Cornwall. All in all, renewables seem to be doing quite well, and expansion is planned so that they supply the bulk of UK power by 2030, with 77-82% of power coming just from wind and solar by then.
However, the Tory opposition are none too enthused by Labours renewable expansion plans – it says power bills will rise even higher. Like Reform, it wants to drill for and use more North Sea gas. But Boris Johnson, back in the fray again, disagreed (sort of): we needed to back cheap green power. So the policy battle goes on. Dr David Toke says that ‘UK solar farms are now returning shedloads of money to consumers’ since newly installed solar farms have lower-price CfDs compared to the earliest ones. So they and are now, in effect, returning money to consumers. Some think that plug-in ‘balcony solar’ may help consumers too. Although not everyone is convinced about that - it may at best be a small addition, with some big uncertainties: some old UK house wiring/pre-1990s fuse boards may not be up to having power fed in from a wall socket, and arrays may not be safely mounted on high rise balconies.
A bigger issue, as variable renewable capacity expands, will be grid balancing. Labour’s 2024 ‘action plan’ included targets to double offshore wind, triple onshore wind and quadruple solar capacity by 2030, but, as Carbon Brief has noted, it also set a target for 4-6GW of Long Duration Energy Storage (LDES), in addition to 23-27GW of short-duration battery energy storage, new interconnectors and a big push to develop consumer-led flexibility. The most recent ‘future energy scenarios’ report from the National Electricity System Operator (Neso) has LDES rising to between 16.6GW and 13.2GW by 2050, mainly dependent on how hydrogen is used in the electricity system. Some see the potential for green hydrogen storage in empty North sea oil and gas fields as huge. Meantime, shorter-duration battery storage capacity is building up.
Of course, in political terms, what matters most is probably the cost of the various options. The latest Levelised cost data from Lazard, the global consultants, show wind and solar beating most other sources over most of the cost range they present, even when storage backup costs are included. That looks promising. But there is no shortage of political debate about what the final costs to consumers will really be in the UK. Pretty obviously, what is needed is cheap and clean power, but there are a range of views on what that means and how it might be achieved.
Post 2030, there is supposed to be some new very expensive nuclear capacity coming on line- the big new 3.2 GW EPRs at Hinkley and then possibly Sizewell, but that has to be set alongside the old AGR nuclear plants (4.8GW) being taken off line. There may be some mini-nuclear SMRs in the mid 2030s- but who knows exactly when and what they will cost. Similarly for the carbon capture and storage plants, that, along with some carbon removal projects, the government see as a crucial part of the of 95% ‘net zero’ energy by 2050 plan. To achieve that i.e. net zero energy, not just power, renewables will be expanded even further, to enable a switch to heat pumps to reduce gas use for heating, and to EVs, to reduce petrol use in cars. All of this needing a lot more storage. Ambitious stuff.
For the moment we are just at the early stages of all this, and speculation continues as to what will or should happen in practice, not least in terms of the residual gas and oil in the North Sea gas - crucially will we need to use fossil gas as a stop-gap while renewables expand and/or for back up while storage expands? And oil too? As I noted in an earlier post, some sort of political resolution on this is due soon. Any day now, according to the media, we should hear what the Labour government will do about the new oil and gas wells - and possibly, by implication, energy policy in general. It looks like they will back the Jackdaw gas field, as a pragmatic option, but may have to find some concessions to try to allay green opposition – the Times suggested more funding for wind was one option. We shall see!
The Guardian bravely said that ‘Miatta Fahnbulleh, the energy secretary, will give her recommendation to approve the Jackdaw field off the coast of Aberdeen as soon as next week, according to people close to the decision, and the formal approval could follow a week after’. Meanwhile, it added ‘officials are looking for ways to make sure any proceeds from the separate Rosebank project – if it is approved – go towards clean energy projects, as happens in Norway’.
Rosenbank is a large longer-term oil-focussed option, with significant employment implications, and, like the Jackdaw gas project, which is nearly ready to go ahead, that may have political attractions, especially given that it is taking time for green jobs to get established to replace oil and gas jobs, in Scotland in particular. But it is all fossil fuel and when burnt it will lead to significant emissions So it is a big decision. And, as George Monbiot noted, a crucial one politically, as well as ecologically. But so far, no sign of it being made! Perhaps next week? Or is the government waiting until after the by-election on October 8th (caused by Keir Starmer’s resignation) or even the new budget, later in October?
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