The pace of global warming has nearly doubled since 2015, while global energy issues are becoming much more fraught, with wars and market chaos adding to the worsening climate problem. But the UN says countries should not delay climate action in an era of geopolitical instability. Instead they should recognise decarbonisation & adaptation as the foundation for security and crisis management.
However, while some are trying, the US notably apart, in this context, some recent policy shifts in Europe seem to be perverse. For example, as I noted in my last post, France has cut its renewable energy targets back. In addition, Germany is to scrap parts of a contentious heating law mandating the use of renewables in favour of a draft law allowing homeowners to rely on fossil fuels.
The previous energy law in Germany, produced in 2023 when the Greens were in the governing coalition, required most new heating systems to use at least 65% renewable energy, with heat pumps pushed hard- including grants to cover some of the high cost of installation. However, as the Guardian noted, ‘the far-right, climate-sceptic Alternative für Deutschland party raged against the 2023 law, in particular its promotion of heat pumps, attacking the Greens for forcing households to make expensive renovations and taking away their freedom to choose’.
The current chancellor, the SPD conservative Friedrich Merz, claimed the change will uphold CO2 emissions targets, while giving homeowners more choice as to which technology to use. But the Greens saw it as putting climate targets in jeopardy. It does sound worrying. Although Germany remains non-nuclear, despite Merz wishing it was otherwise: ‘it is the way it is, and we are now concentrating on the energy policy we have’.
Meantime though, Germany has seen 10GW of offshore wind installed and the EU has agreed to €3bn more in state aid support for more German green power. That’s maybe just as well given that the new Middle East war is likely to reduce the availability of gas and oil. Or will Germany and other EU countries be forced to buy in LPG from the USA? Some say that was Trumps plan all along…although, what seems to have been the ostensible starting point was a dubious US understanding of uranium enrichment issues. More generally it might be seen just the latest instalment in the long-running and worsening geopolitical conflict over continued access to increasingly scarce fossil fuel resources, with a key focus always being the balance of political and military power in the Middle East.
However, whatever the cause, being hopeful, the US- Israel attack on Iran might provide a new incentive for Europe to push renewables harder so as to avoid energy price shocks. That approach has been argued forcefully in the UK, with PM Kier Starmer saying ‘What gives us control is renewables. Our own home-grown energy which is then more secure and more independent. That’s why I think we should go further and faster on renewables. Let’s get control of our own energy…so we don’t have to keep worrying that our bills are going to go up.’ The Climate Change Committee has also said that the UK Government could deliver its long-term net-zero target for less than it spent responding to the energy price crisis resulting from the Russia-Ukraine war. Certainly, we should learn from that. For example, as Carbon Brief says, it is very odd that we still have the cost of power tied to the cost of gas.
So what happens next? It’s a big mess…. maybe the worst so far in energy crisis terms, but also politically. Russia is the only country possibly to benefit from it all, with the US lifting some the sanctions on Russian oil exports.
Will China come to the rescue, with its massive green energy programme? It is certainly doing better on that than its rival 7G countries. Or does it have too many internal policy uncertainties for green energy to continue and grow and for emissions to continue to fall? We will have to wait to see - it too is reliant on imported fossil gas. But it is also exporting and investing in green energy technology around the world. Is that just the start of a new imperialism, or a hopeful step to a greener world?
Although, as noted above, leaving that issue aside, there are some positive signs of progress globally, and nearer to home UK carbon emissions have been cut. And progress on that looks like continuing. The next round of the renewable CfD auctions (AR8) has been brought forward to July to help improve energy security, with renewable expansion, and the move to Net Zero, being seen as part of a sensible response to the likely impacts of the war on energy prices.
That’s what Carbon Brief has also concluded – it says clean energy will cut UK gas imports by more than new North sea drilling. And that’s just with the familiar wind and solar options, plus heat pumps and a bit of energy saving. But there are also other options that may be able to help. For example, the Anaerobic Digestion and Bioresources Association says existing biomethane/biogas plants could increase production by almost a third within months if government removes regulatory barriers for home heating. A new report for DESNZ says green hydrogen for power production and energy storage is also worth a look. And there’s also geothermal - the first big deep hot rock power plant is now running in Cornwall. In addition, although maybe longer term, there are many possible contributions from tidal schemes – the UK is a leader. Basically, in an emergency, it’s all hands to the pump and the UK has plenty of options, including many energy saving/efficiency upgrading options in all sectors.
However, sadly, while there are some bright spots like this, most of the wider global news is dominated by bad trends, such as the endless use of human ingenuity, including now AI, in horrendous new wars. Would it be good if super-rational AI systems refused to work on crazy destructive suboptimal projects and in effect told us to address the global eco-issues instead? Or would that be the start of a machine tyranny? But, surely, we can’t carry on like this, endlessly killing people and wrecking the planet. When will it ever stop?
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