It’s all change for new energy technology in France, although in France, dominated for so long by nuclear, what ‘change’ means is slightly different from what it means in most other countries. However, although it still supplies around 67% of French electricity, nuclear did fall from grace when, in the early 2020s, generic faults were discovered in many of its increasingly elderly reactors. Dealing with that has been expensive (many of France's 56 nuclear reactors had to be shut down for tests/repairs), but, although financial problems continue, that did not lead to major policy changes- or too much of a lift-off for renewables, despite political pressure from the left for change.
Energy and climate policy has clearly been a contentious political issue in France for decades, with the socialist government in the 2010s planning to cut nuclear back to a 50% contribution, but the right calling for more nuclear plants, to replace the old, soon to be obsolete ones. At one time 6 new plants were planned. But that would cost more than EDF/France can afford, so, although renewables have expanded, the energy issue has mostly been left unresolved by successive right-wing governments.
However, after years of wrangling, now a new 10-year PPE energy law has emerged. It proposes cutting wind & solar targets and abandoning the mandate for state-run firm EDF to close some old nuclear plants. ‘We need to stop our internal family squabbling. We need both nuclear and renewables,’ the French finance minister said. EDF will be allowed a 5% expansion, with a new nuclear plant expected to be running by 2038, while wind and solar targets were lowered, to 105-135 GW by 2035 from drafts that had called for 133-163 GW.
Specifically, the PPE lowers the 2035 target for offshore wind to 15 GW from 18 GW target the government had submitted for consultation in 2024. The target for onshore wind capacity falls to 35-40 GW from the 45 GW previously communicated. Solar capacity will be 55-80 GW by 2035, down from a previous forecast of 75-100 GW.
However, with new nuclear included, the new law does call for France to get 60% of its energy from decarbonised electricity by 2030, shifting from 60% of its energy (not just power) coming from fossil fuels as currently, and then up to 70% from decarbonised electricity by 2035. Predictably, far right party leader Marine Le Pen didn’t like it, still too many renewables. But EDF may be happy- there is some more nuclear and a bit less renewable expansion.
They are in a bit of a bind, because, with renewables expanding, EDF’s nuclear plants are finding it hard cope. They try to do this by reducing output when demand is low and renewable output is also at maximum – so called ‘load following’. EDF call it ‘modulation’. In a new policy statement, they say ‘this development regarding modulation is mainly the result of the expansion of renewable generation sources - solar and wind - in France and across Europe, against a backdrop of stagnant electricity consumption’. They note that ‘between 2019 and 2024, the volume of nuclear modulation doubled, increasing from 15 TWh to more than 30 TWh. In 2025, the nuclear fleet modulated by 33 TWh. Today, modulation also occurs during the day, particularly during periods of high solar generation. More frequently, modulation can even lead to the shutdown of nuclear reactors’. That means nuclear looks even less economically viable.
It is not just a simple nuclear overcapacity problem. It is made worse by trying to use nuclear plants to balance variable renewables. That’s hard with large costly inflexible nuclear plants. There are nuclear operational safety constraints (e.g. it takes a while for the build-up of neutron-absorbing Xenon-135 to dissipate), which mean that they are not able to cycle their output quickly and repeatedly to meet rapid supply and demand variations. But they can do it slowly and occasionally. EDF’s new UK EPRs are not designed to do that, but, given that EDF has many more nuclear plants in France, it has been forced do it there quite a lot. However, in the new statement, EDF now says there are problems: this extra modulation wears them out - EDFs pumped hydro and gas plants too: ‘The increased flexibility required of EDF’s generation assets is notably leading to higher maintenance costs for all these facilities’.
The overall extra annual cost of modulation has been put at €50 million for the nuclear plants. But that may be an understatement- and, in any case, as renewables expand, it will grow. EDF says it will soon be more like €392 m p.a. Clearly they would like to avoid escalating costs like this. So what to do? Expand power demand they say! ‘To reduce production overcapacity and manage the industrial, economic and social impacts associated with increasing modulation, a clear priority emerges: accelerating the electrification of end uses’. What they seem to saying is that, to save money, they want to do less load following and less nuclear shut downs. And to achieve that they are proposing that demand for power is increased as much as possible. Then nuclear can still run (and grow) even when there is lots of green power and nuclear overcapacity. Good luck with that. Especially given that its renewable potential (for wind and solar) is so good!
It is not clear how power demand could be expanded – more heat pumps, and expanding the use of electric vehicles, as the UK is trying to do? That would be good environmentally in that it would reduce fossil fuel use. Otherwise France would just have to promote new uses of power - at a time when energy saving is meant to be a key aim. A bit odd…* Interestingly, Chris Stark, the ‘Mission Controller’ of the UK Net Zero programme, also says he wants an ‘increase in electricity demand’, but in the UK case, so as to spread fixed green system/network costs over a bigger demand base, with the emphasis on flexible power demand. Meantime, EDF, hard-pressed financially in France, is also struggling with its UK nuclear projects, but that’s another story!
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