The end of the year is seeing some arguably gloomy prognosis emerge about the future- along with claims that we can go back to some of old tech for a better future! Thus the Times ran an editorial (24/11/25) complaining about ‘Ed Miliband's myopic focus on wind & solar power’, and calling instead for a ‘fleet of traditional gas-fired stations, allowing nuclear to catch up’ and backing more large Sizewell-type standard nuclear plants. Although also (to be modern!) up to ‘as many as 100 small modular reactors.’ Sounds like what Reform has in mind. But also the Tories. And indeed Labour, although with lots of renewables as well.
Though perhaps it’s only gloomy if you are a green and want even more renewables and energy saving- and also no nuclear. Certainly the Green’s new leader is keen of renewables and says the proposed Centrica/X-energy project at Hartlepool is based ‘technology from long ago’! Checking back, yes, the UK did try building something similar at Winfrith Dorset in 1959- the Dragon High Temperature gas reactor. Germany also had a go, South Africa too. None of these efforts were followed up. But more recently China has it seems been more successful. And US company X Energy may also be. Though, like all the SMRs/AMRs so far, it is based on old tech, back again for a second try.
However, while not everyone is convinced, most of the media seems to love SMRs, the new kid soon to be on the block (in 2030+), but they were mostly pretty dismissive about the COP 30 climate negotiations in Brazil: unlike SMRs, that is portrayed as an old failed idea. But they may be right, at least on that. Progressive energy trade e-journal Edie noted that in the final COP paper work there was ‘no explicit mention of fossil fuels - something that was included in early drafts but rejected by factions including the Arab Group and Africa Group’. Long serving ex-Guardian eco-journalist Paul Brown wrote in effect a COP /climate politics obituary - and also another farewell piece (very sadly he has terminal lung cancer) on his experiences as an environmental columnists and lamenting the Guardian’s evident recent shift to being more in favour of nuclear power.
However, then again, the world is full of surprises. Of late the Daily Telegraph has taken to attacking nuclear- due to the high cost of the French plants being built here with UK taxpayers and consumers money: ‘The troubled Hinkley Point C nuclear power station will add £1bn annually to UK energy bills as soon as it’s switched on, official figures show. The money will be taken from consumers and handed to the French owner EDF to subsidise operations, making it one of the UK’s most expensive sources of electricity. A further £1bn will be added to bills by a separate nuclear levy, supporting construction of the Sizewell C nuclear power station in Suffolk, also led by EDF.’
Will the Telegraph soon start sounding like the greens? Hardly (and, to be fair, the Guardian did also cover the ‘£2bn’ nuclear story), but there may be some odd overlaps, with Jonathon Porritt wading in on the £5bn bring spent on nuclear - 60% of the UK energy budget. Though I can’t see the Tory right and the Labour/CND left joining forces ever. However, it is worth remembering that it was the Nationalised UK coal board (and staff member Fritz Schumacher, later to write Small is Beautiful) who originally led the anti-nuclear movement- along then with the National Union of Mineworkers! Indeed, in the early years the UK anti-nuke environmental movement was pro coal- although also increasingly pro-renewables and energy conservation. And on the other side? Well, as Paul Brown noted, Maggie Thatcher was the first major politico to push climate issues- but her solution was nuclear. And she saw off coal- and the NUM! What a tangled web we weave….with military and civil nuclear nowadays also becoming ever more entwined…and Reform UK is even it seems keen on coal!
So, for the future, where is the hope? The USA is a mess, though it did add 60GW of green energy tech this year, Europe is struggling, but still trying to meet climate targets despite economic issues. Though the IEA says it ought to try harder. The UK is all over the place- e.g. pushing off shore wind but also still importing nuclear fuel from Russia for Sizewell B, the UKs largest nuclear plant. Meanwhile, despite some unsavoury politics and practices, some look to China, given its huge and expanding commitment to renewables- dwarfing its nuclear programme. But will that be enough to cut emissions? We will have to wait to see.
Meantime though, almost everyone, everywhere thinks AI will help! Indeed, some say we can’t do without it . Although others say it will lead to unsustainable growth in power demand and also some other unwelcome impacts. And while some say it will boom, Prof. Niall Ferguson says it could go bust.
Well, the debate goes on, with some being opposed to large data centre/AI projects, even those using renewable sources. However, this year’s annual DNV energy transition overview says that AI will be the biggest driver of electricity consumption the in the next five years in N. America. However, in Europe, it says EV charging growth will far exceed AI’s demand growth, as will EV charging & the cooling of buildings in China and India. So it’s a mixed bag- but AI does seem here to stay. For example, the new UK Nuclear Regulation review notes that the government ‘plans to expand AI-capable data centre capacity which is expected to require at least six gigawatts by 2030, adding further demand for electricity’. Will it be met by nuclear, as the NIA trade lobby seems to think it should? Or renewables, as some greens think? Or, as Reform UK seem to want, fossil gas! Or even coal! Stay tuned!
*Dave Elliott and Terry Cook, have been looking at the potential role of AI and its potential for aiding (or hindering) green energy developments. They hope to have an academic paper published on this area soon, arguing that what AI needs is TA- critical Technology Assessment. Just what Renew’s host, NATTA, has been trying to do for Alternative Technology (AT) since it started up in 1976!
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