Renewables – an unstoppable revolution?

More than half of the EU’s electricity in the second quarter of 2025 came from renewable energy, with solar being the main source of electricity in the European Union for the first time in history in June, then supplying 22% of the electricity generated. According to Eurostat, the largest EU green power contributor overall was Denmark, with 94.7% share of renewables in net electricity generated, followed by Latvia (93.4%) and Austria (91.8%). So, if the others can follow, as they seem likely to do, the EU is on the way to having a fully   sustainable power supply, the UK too, with some of that power being increasingly used for heat and transport - in heat pumps and EVs.  

So one way or another, the Europe looks good for green energy. And overall, with some exceptions, the world isn’t doing too bad, in terms of power supply, with renewables overtaking coal as the world's leading source of electricity in the first half of this year. That is despite electricity demand growing around the world: the growth in solar and wind was more than enough to meet it- although not everywhere.  In the US, Trump is it seems trying to go the opposite way and even China, which is pushing renewables hard, still has a way to go, although it has been doing well and aims to get well past peak carbon soon, reducing its greenhouse gas emissions across the economy by 7-10% by 2035. 

Electrification does seem to be helping there and elsewhere, with electricity winning out as the main energy carrier. Although for some uses there are other contenders. For example, hydrogen gas can be more easily stored, and then used for grid balancing. But to make it green is has to be produced by electrolysis using green power, so while it can be flexible and useful, it’s not actually from a new independent green source. Same for the use of green hydrogen as a fuel for vehicles or heating – that would be made using conventional renewable power, and (although it may be more convenient) it cannot be any cheaper than using the later direct.  Biomass is an independent source, and can be used to make heat which is storable, but there are environmental and land issues with biomass production and combustion. Same for biofuels for vehicles. Although biogas from domestic and farm wastes may avoid some of the issues, and, like hydrogen, it can be piped and stored.  However, like hydrogen, biomass is unlikely to be a very large source for home heating. 

Meantime,  in parallel with and supporting electrification, energy storage, is expanding in all sectors, and not just batteries for backup. And it seem likely to be a very major area of growth, with costs falling and demand rising, with new technology emerging- including green hydrogen based systems. Short and long term storage, along with new smart grid systems, are the key to a viable, flexible and balanced power system.  

So, with all this going on, and energy saving initiatives as well, it is perhaps not surprising that the green tech market is looking very positive.  For example, the majority of UK manufacturers are aiming to embed sustainability into their business plans over the next five years, with focus points such as renewables, digitalisation and greener materials all high on the agenda. According to Make UK’s new survey, 'Manufacturing a sustainable future – capitalising on green technologies', at a time when there are some political calls to row back on the UK’s net zero ambitions, manufacturers in fact are more committed than ever, with more than 8 out of 10 companies planning to invest in green growth, in particular prioritising renewable energy- backed by 49.7% of the companies surveyed. 

The Make UK report also notes that the EU has worked to create a net-zero ecosystem through a green industrial plan, which it says  is delivering an estimated investment worth over £87bn by focusing rigidly on technological development, manufacturing production and the installation of the very latest green technologies across industry. It adds that Japan has also raised over £700bn in public-private finance to incentivise a move away from reliance on fossil fuels with more than a quarter of Japanese companies (25.2%) perceived to be using green technologies in their supply chains.  China of course is roaring ahead, but even the Trump administration’s defunding of renewables and climate science, almost three-quarters of businesses in North America say they will either maintain or increase their environmental ambitions in the year ahead. 

Nevertheless, Trumps policies are still likely to hurt. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has halved its latest growth expectations for renewables deployment in the US, although it has still predicted that global renewables capacity will double by 2030, in what Ember described as an ‘unstoppable revolution.’ So although it recognises that there have been supply chain issues and financial problems and it has reduced its global capacity forecasts from 2024, the new annual IEA report  is still very positive. It says that the world’s installed renewable capacity will increase by 4,600 GW by 2030, with solar accounting for around 80% of the new capacity globally, and with most major renewable energy developers having either maintained or raised their 2030 deployment targets compared with last year. 

So, all is reasonably well on the power supply side. But it notes that only 4% of the world’s energy use for transport this year will be met with renewables, and although the IEA foresees this proportion growing to 6% by 2030, it still means there is a lot of fossil fuel being used.  Renewables’ share of energy used globally to provide heat for buildings and industry is also still a bit low, and is only set to increase from 14% to 18% over the forecast period. We have to do better. Though I’m not sure that the IEA’s 50% upward revision of biofuel growth by 2030 is a brilliant idea. Although the use of green marine diesel may be justified, cars, trucks and planes are a different matter. So too is nuclear power, which the IEA still backs.  But despite quite wild Trump-tinged talk of a ‘Golden Future’, the counter arguments seem to get stronger by the day.