‘All of the expert advice says nuclear has a really important role to play in the energy system. So said UK Energy Secretary Ed Milliband, announcing an extra £14.2bn allocation for the proposed new Sizewell C reactor. Putting it charitably, he seems to have been poorly informed.
As I noted in an earlier post, there are many expert studies suggesting that there is no need for nuclear and that, in fact, it is a poor choice compared with renewables - which are cheaper as a way to respond to climate change. At least one of the submissions that I have seen to the ongoing Nuclear Roadmap Inquiry, run by the energy security and net zero Select Committee, takes a similar line- nuclear is too costly, slow and unreliable, with offshore wind being a better option.
However, it seems that the Select Committee will not start work on its report until later in the year, so it may be a while before we can see the results of its deliberations and all the submissions. And, meanwhile, the ground has certainly shifted. For good or ill, the UK is now heading for nuclear expansion, with Carbon Brief laying out a timeline chart showing what is expected. Of course, renewables are also expanding, and more rapidly. And the nuclear plans may come unstuck. For example the Times noted that ‘the government has commissioned just three SMR reactors, none expected before 2035. Rolls Royce said in 2015 that to make building a modular factory worthwhile, you would need an order book of 50 to 70’. So the £2.5bn diverted from Great British Energy’s renewable funding to SMRs, may not be enough, although it may still damage confidence in the progress of green power.
It also didn’t help that there was very little said about renewables in the spending review. That may have been understandable in terms of investment, since it was about major new capital/infrastructure projects like Sizewell, although the tidal energy lobby have complained about the Spending Review’s omission of tidal range energy commitments, warning that the government’s energy strategy dangerously over-relies on high-risk technologies. In a new report, the Tidal Range Alliance points to the quite large (~500MW) successful tidal barrages in France and S Korea, and says ‘Tidal Range is a proven, low-risk, high-reward technology’ adding that ‘it is time to mobilise it proactively as a resilient cornerstone of the clean energy system – not as a fall-back when other technologies falter.’ It claims that the UK’s tidal range potential, including tidal lagoons, could yield up to 30TW/h annually, and also offered additional benefits like coastal protection and local regeneration, with a levelised costs of energy put at £90–123/MWh. Hinkley Point C may end up with an inflation index linked CfD strike price well over that, maybe £130/MWh or more, by the time it finally gets to work, and who knows what Sizewell will really cost.
There are some CfD backed tidal stream projects already running in Scotland and more planned elsewhere, but the most advanced UK tidal range proposal is the 700MW Mersey barrage, although there is also a proposal for a huge 2.5GW tidal lagoon off Somerset, not far from Hinkley… There can be environmental problems with large tidal range systems, which is one reason why the 7GW Severn Barrage met with opposition, but smaller barrages and lagoons may have fewer impact issues. That’s also true tidal stream turbines, which can also be deployed in a modular way in large numbers, distributed around the coast, so that their peak outputs occur at different times of day, rather than just in two large bursts each day, as with individual tidal range systems.
While the Tidal Range Alliance is trying to move barrages and lagoons on, a Marine Energy Taskforce, has been launched aimed at developing a roadmap to realise the UK’s wave and tidal stream energy potential, which has been put at 25 GW for wave and 11 GW for tidal stream. Energy Minister, Michael Shanks said ‘With a coastline that stretches among the longest in Europe, it’s time we finally deliver on our marine energy potential and put our waves and tides to work. We will work closely with industry in breaking down barriers, unlocking investment, and kickstarting growth in our coastal communities, as we deliver clean homegrown power that we control.’
For the moment though, new areas like this await serious attention, and as far as renewables go, the focus is on PV solar and wind, on and offshore. They have been very successfully developed, in fact massively so since the early days. In 1986, with an election pending in 1987, Labours than leader Neil Kinnock gave an ‘unequivocal guarantee that the next Labour government will not sanction the ordering of another nuclear power station’, and added that ‘I am sure the advocates of alternative energy will not shirk the test the next Labour government will offer them’. But Labour lost…
Things have certainly changed since then, with the Tories, under Margaret Thatcher, backing nuclear. David Cameron too, later on. But renewables have nevertheless continued to live up to their promise – and are now supplying over 50% of UK power. Though we seem to keep going round the same cycle. Last time Labour was in power, in the 2000’s, it initially came up with a ‘no nuclear’ policy, but then changed its mind, with Tony Blair famously saying ‘nuclear is back with a vengeance.’ There was even talk of a 35-40% nuclear contribution ‘after 2030’. That came to nothing. But, now we are facing a big new Labour nuclear programme again….
However, at least this time around, although, if it goes ahead as planned, some resources will be diverted to nuclear, there is still over £6bn allocated to Great British Energy’s green power programme and renewable expansion, based on wind and solar, seems pretty unstoppable, with hydrogen also being part of that - now given £500m more. In addition, the Spending Review confirmed that the Warm Homes Plan would go ahead, with £13.2 billion helping to accelerate the uptake insulation and other domestic energy efficiency measures, as well as heat pumps and other low-carbon technologies, such as solar panels and batteries. So, one or two nuclear steps backwards maybe, but a lot of green steps forward, with a very welcome £1.2bn per year also earmarked for training and apprenticeships.
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