UK Clean Power by 2030

 Last year, the Department of Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) asked the National Energy System Operator (NESO) to provide independent, expert advice on delivering clean power by 2030. NESO’s pragmatic advice was that security of power supply could be provided if we maintain Britain’s fleet of gas power stations but reduce their use to no more than 5% of total generation. That’s quite impressive, given that it supplies around 30% now: renewables will have to ramp up dramatically- new nuclear can’t add much, if anything, by then.

Writing in the new Departmental ‘Clean Energy Action Plan’ Chris Stark, Head of Clean Power 2030, says that target ‘clarifies the task: build the grid that Britain needs, overturning decades of delay; install clean sources of power at a pace never previously achieved; identify the energy mix needed for the 2030 power system and reorder the connection queue to achieve it; develop a flexible system that can accommodate and store Britain’s renewable resources; deliver these benefits to consumers, people, households, and businesses as swiftly as possible’.   

So, as the Action Plan says, ‘we have high ambition’, with the government also having to reform planning & consenting processes to achieve its 2030 targets: ‘43-50 GW of offshore wind, 27-29 GW of onshore wind, and 45-47 GW of solar power, significantly reducing our fossil-fuel dependency’. For grid balancing and security, it says that these power supply targets ‘will be complemented by flexible capacity, including 23-27 GW of battery capacity, 4-6 GW of long duration energy storage, and development of flexibility technologies including gas carbon capture utilisation & storage, hydrogen, and substantial opportunity for consumer-led flexibility.’. It adds that this new system will be underpinned ‘by the rapid delivery of 80 network and enabling infrastructure projects, most of which are already at an advanced stage of planning and development’. 

Will it work reliably?  The plan says ‘over the period to 2030, security of supply will be protected with the maintenance of an expected 35 GW of unabated gas reserve capacity’. That feels less threatening than saying gas will only supply 5% to the total, but what’s presumably meant here is that this capacity will only be used occasionally – at peak demand times. 

However, its unabated capacity, so there will still be emissions, which we ought avoid if possible. And the report does look to some of the various other flexibility options, including smart demand management, heat storage and vehicle to grid backup. There are lots of other balancing possibilities too, including green hydrogen production and storage. It is noted that a new government report on hydrogen is due out soon. But, for now, evidently it was felt that some fossil gas capacity had to be kept on line, just in case.  

Overall though, nervous bits like that apart, it is quite an impressive plan, seeking to develop a secure and affordable energy supply system, and limit the UK contribution to the damaging effects of climate change in a planned way. It will cost, put there will be payoff. As the plan says ‘growing our clean energy system in this way will see once-in-a-generation levels of energy investment – an estimated £40 billion on average per year between 2025-2030, spreading the economic benefits of clean energy investment throughout the UK with the collaboration of the Scottish and Welsh governments. These investments will protect electricity consumers from volatile gas prices & be the foundation of a UK energy system that can bring down consumer bills for good. Every choice we make will be scrutinised to maximise the impact it can have in reducing consumer bills’. 

Bold stuff, but with some big uncertainties. Will costs be contained? With local planning conflicts be avoided? There is plenty of speculation about all of that.  But the current situation does give cause for some optimism, with, according to the latest Energy Trends report by the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, renewables now supplying over  50% of UK power, led by wind at almost 30%. Though clearly there is some way to go, with many key steps to make, especially on the infrastructure side. For example, the new 2030 plan say that, ‘we need to reform the grid connections process and reduce the queue to connect’ and also install ‘around twice as much new transmission network infrastructure’ as has been built in the past decade. However, it is quite positive. It says that ‘Regulatory reform will ensure Clean Power 2030 is better integrated into planning and decision making, so investment can be made ahead of need and the time taken to build and deliver network projects can be reduced in line with 2030 requirements’.

On the supply side, it says that ‘the Contracts for Difference allocation process needs to meet our 2030 ambitions and put an end to the stop-start failures of recent years. We need high levels of renewables to protect consumers and they need to be secured at the best price. Offshore wind has a particularly important role as the backbone of the clean power system.’ In addition, ‘we will leverage Great British Energy, and wider policy measures to support local and community-led renewable capacity, including for homes, businesses, public buildings and land, and shared spaces. Great British Energy will provide support to deliver the Local Power Plan, putting local authorities and communities at the heart of restructuring our energy economy.’ 

So, there is quite a lot to do, with, crucially, a Low Carbon Flexibility Roadmap to be published next year, and a new supply chains and workforce planning forum to be set up soon. The plan highlights ‘the need supported by skilled workers in their thousands’, and also ‘the need for a secure and affordable energy supply’.  Not everyone one has been convinced that it can achieve all that, with, for example , the Public Accounts Committee being worried about how it might deal with future price spikes.  With several big costly commitments possibly coming up soon, not least a decision on the Sizewell C nuclear plant, that is a worry- the plan is fairly sanguine about nuclear, but it does feel a bit tacked on at the end….after 2030.  

While the Action Plan does say that ‘nuclear will play a key role’, that’s at best is longer term as far as new plant are concerned, and it notes that ‘there are uncertainties associated with having Hinkley Point C online by the end of the decade, given delays in the past few years.'  That uncertainty is even more in the case of Sizewell C! See my last post: it might it even be dumped soon…