Global renewables race - US v China

The USA and China are battling it out over climate change responses, part of their wider global contest, with the deployment of renewables being to the fore.  So far, with its huge expansion programme, China is leading in renewable capacity terms, with, according to IRENA’s end 2020 data, around 895 GW of renewables installed, including 370 GW of hydro, compared to 292 GW of renewables including hydro in the USA. However, given the different nature and efficiency of energy use in each country, this doesn’t translate into such a big lead in terms of the share of electricity supplied (around 28% in China, about 20% in the USA), with China having much more low load factor solar PV capacity than the USA (254 GW compared to 74 GW), and much larger curtailment losses for wind, due to its weaker grid system.  And in terms of total energy supplied (for power, heat and transport), they are about equal with 10-11% being met from renewables, with both making use of bio-energy of various types and for various end uses. Interestingly, that’s about the same as the overall global figure, so neither are doing that well in total energy terms, mainly since overall energy demand has continued to rise for both.

However China plans to try to do better and continue to expand renewable dramatically, with offshore wind and solar expected to take increasing energy shares. Its National Energy Administration has proposed an energy target upgrade, to install 300 GW more wind and solar capacity by 2030 than planned, so that, by 2030, China would get 40% of its electricity from nuclear and renewables - the nuclear share being around 4%. The US does not have specific renewable/energy targets, but a new Department of Energy report says that solar could supply 40% of US power by 2035 and Biden has talked of all US electricity being renewable by 2035.  Progress toward that does seem to be underway: renewables ‘made up nearly 91% of new US capacity in first half of 2021’, although there is still some way to go.

What does all this mean in terms of emissions? China emits more greenhouse gas than the entire developed world combined – and 27% of the world's greenhouse gases in all in 2019. The US was the second largest, at 11%. So China is still the biggest emitter by far, and it is still building more coal plants. But its level of coal plant investment is slowing, with renewable capacity expansion expected to take over soon. However, it is still going to be burning a lot of coal for some while. Under the new Five Year plan, China has committed to reduce emissions per unit of GDP by 18% between 2020 and 2025- but that’s not the same thing as actually cutting emissions! Meanwhile the US has pledged to cut actual carbon emissions by 50-52% below 2005 levels by 2030. So the contest goes on, with assertions and counter assertions as to the shortcomings or otherwise of each sides climate polices and commitments emerging. 

While they may converge in the long term, the US may initially be in the leading position. President Xi Jinping has said he will aim for China's emissions to reach their highest point before 2030 and for the country to be carbon neutral by 2060, but, given continuing commitment, the US should be able to get to carbon neutrality well before then. Certainly China is currently facing grid security problems, which may slow the pace of its decarbonistion. Although its pre-COP26 announcement still looked quite hopeful longer term, with target of cutting fossil energy use to below 20% by 2060. 

China and the USA are of course not the only players fighting it out in the climate stakes. India is the third largest green house gas emitter globally (6.6% of total) and isn’t doing that well with renewables, with only around 134 GW installed so far.  Europe (see my earlier post) is doing much better, with 528GW in the EU, or 609GW including non-EU countries. Although it’s behind China, it is well ahead of the USA, with offshore wind being a key feature, especially in the UK, the global leader, where there is 10 GW installed.  However, while it is now trying, the US has lagged far behind in that race, and China recently overtook Germany as number 2, with nearly 8 GW of offshore wind installed. China is also now leading the US in PV solar output (261 TWh v 132TWh in 2020).  The renewables race continues on all fronts, and, to a lesser extent, there is also a race to try to develop nuclear, from the 96GW in the US and 50GW in China, although expansion has met with sometimes major technical and financial problems and programme delays, most recently in relation to the only new plant currently being built in the USA and to the Chinese version of the EPR.

Supply-side energy technologies like renewables and nuclear are of course not the only option. Unless energy use is managed more efficiently, and demand cut back, it will be hard for new low-carbon supply technology of whatever sort to halt emission growth, and recourse may be made to carbon removal projects as last ditch emergency options, seeking to offset the continued use of fossil fuel. While some see this as inevitable, or even desirable, and there are some projects in China and the USA, progress has been slow, and many see the whole idea as potentially disastrous in environmental terms and economically unviable. Indeed some see CCS and the like as basically a devious con. Certainly investment in it could divert effort from the more rapid development of renewables and energy saving. 

Fortunately, that seems unlikely to happen on any large scale, with renewables accelerating ahead in both countries. Emerging commitments to hydrogen, as a new energy vector, might present some problems for renewables (and the environment) if the emphasis remains on ‘blue’ hydrogen derived from fossil fuels, with CCS to reduce emissions, but not if electrolytic green hydrogen, derived using renewable power, is favoured. 

So far it’s not clear which way the USA will go in regard to green v blue hydrogen. As in Europe, some in the USA seek to adopt a ‘pathway agnostic’ approach, but China does seem to be keen to push ahead with some large green hydrogen projects. Indeed some say that this could kick off a hydrogen boom, stimulated in part by rising demand in the transport sector. In the US context, electric vehicles currently have the edge, with hydrogen fuel cell-powered cars some way behind, but who knows, the world is changing, shaped in part by the technology contest between the USA and China. 

We can expect them and all the others to stake out their claims at COP26, now running in Glasgow: see this useful guide from an OU colleague.