The wind power story gets better and better, with more and more capacity being installed around the world, costs continuing to fall and larger more efficient and powerful turbines being developed. GE claims that a single spin of its giant 13 MW Haliade-X turbine could power a typical home for two days. And a new wind analysis raises power density estimates- there’s more power available from wind turbines than we thought for both on shore and offshore machines.
On shore wind has its attractions (it’s nearer loads and easier to install), and there is now over 620 GW of on-shore capacity in use globally, but offshore wind-speeds are usually higher and more consistent, so that capacity factors can reach 50% or more. With visual intrusion issues avoided, going offshore also means that larger turbines are possible, with 13-14MW units soon and then maybe moving up to vast 20MW units. Offshore is clearly where the big wind resource is, and it is being exploited rapidly, with over 2,300 machines already in place off the UK coast, and we can now get access to more of it by going further offshore with floating wind turbines, which avoid the cost of building foundations or piles into the sea bed.
The DNV GL consultancy says the installed capacity of offshore floating wind globally will soar from its current 100 MW to as much as 250 GW by mid-century, supplying 2% of global power, with costs falling by around 70% by 2050, dropping to a global average of €40 per MWh. Meantime, standard on and off shore wind will also be booming. The UK is in the lead, and may stay so, with a target of 40GW of offshore wind by 2030, while Japan has an offshore wind target of 30-45 GW by 2040 and the 27 member EU is aiming for 60GW by 2030. China is expected to have 53 GW of offshore wind capacity in place by 2030, with most sites near to the big coastal cities.
China has of course led in wind generally- it now has over 215 GW in all, beating the EU at 190 GW and the USA at 104 GW. But the race continues, with the US beginning to catch up. Standard and Poor’s Global Market Intelligence analysis shows a pipeline 75.7 GW of new wind power of all types in the USA up to 2024, including offshore.
Solar too…
So wind is doing well most places, with maybe 200 GW in all likely to be in place by 2030. But PV solar is also doing well and it may soon overtake wind in capacity terms in many locations. For example, S&P look to their being 96.8 GW of PV projects in train in the US for 2024. And in some scenarios, PV begins to lead wind globally in capacity terms by 2040: for example Wood Mackanzie’s Total Eclipse report has PV at 2.6 TW by then, wind at only 1.4 TW. That is in part since it is easier to deploy, although there are placement limits and land use conflicts, and it does get dark at night, so that capacity factors for PV solar are inevitably far lower than with wind technology. The result is that while, in some 2050 scenarios, there is more PV capacity than wind capacity, the output from wind is higher. For example, IRENAs REMAP scenario has 8.2 TW of PV supplying around a quarter of global power, but 6.4 TW of wind supplying over a third of global power. However, others are more optimistic about PV and see it also dominating output by 2050. For example, Jacobson has it supplying 46% of the global electricity by then, wind 36%, while LUT/EWG have it generating 69%, wind only18%!
Even if solar does not expand quite to that scale, it should do very well, with costs still falling and floating solar arrays (on lakes, reservoirs and inshore coastal sites) helping to avoid some land use limitation. Mind you, wind might yet get back in the lead, if airborne kite-based flying wind devices prove to be commercially viable, possibly operating at altitudes ranging from few hundred feet up to several thousand feet in some locations. That would open up a vast new high wind-speed resource, although it seems less likely now on a large scale than a few years back, when there were many projects being tested. However, breakthroughs are still a possibility, perhaps in niche remote locations markets. Technological breakthrough in other areas are also possible, for novel floating devices especially, with hybrid floating wind and wave devices being proposed. In addition there have been proposals for infilling/upgrading some on-land arrays, with smaller vertical axis wind turbines, this arguably making better use of sites. New developments in material use and blade design are also emerging, to reduce environmental and wildlife impacts. And, with costs continuing to fall, overall the prospects for wind development do look very good.
All that said, it’s it should not be seen in terms of there being a competition between wind and solar: they are, and should be, running in parallel, adding to our renewable capacity in different ways and not conflicting. They are very seasonally compatible, with winds often being high in the winter, when it is cold, solar in the summer, when its hot, so ideal for air conditioning. Their pros and cons may vary by location, but supergrid grid links can allow us to balance out power over wide areas. Globally we need both, as well as the other renewables and energy saving, to cut emissions from fossil fuel use, with there being a range of options available to balance their (differently) variable outputs. In addition to supergrid links, that includes converting surplus power to hydrogen or methane gas to store ready for when power is needed again during renewable supply lulls- the Power to Gas idea.
Clearly Wind and PV solar have become the winners in the energy race, and that has changed perceptions of what may be possible in future. The influential US journal Foreign Policy said ‘Our Amazing Clean Energy Future Has Arrived- the evidence of a great green wave is now overwhelming. And it will only get better’. Certainly optimism does seem justified. With costs falling, wind and solar capacity will build up and some of the newer renewables may well follow their lead, so that we can develop a globally sustainable energy system.
Comments
Post a Comment