Renewable
energy has developed rapidly in the UK. It now supplies over third of grid
electricity, and there have been a range of proposals for expansion as part of
the zero carbon energy transition. For
example, trade lobby group Renewable UK
(RUK) has produced Powering the Future, outlining its vision of the energy transition. It
predicts that wind capacity could surge six-fold to more than 120 GW by 2050. With
the right policies, it says that UK offshore wind could reach 40 GW by 2030,
which would cover one-third of UK's electricity demand, rising to 90GW by 2050.
RUK notes that, since 2010, the UK has attracted
48% of the roughly £80bn invested in offshore
wind in Europe, and with the US and China as yet not very active in this
area, the UK was the largest offshore wind market in the world. Continued
expansion looked likely: the 40 GW by 2030 goal would require a further £54bn
of investment. In
addition to the parallel expansion of on-shore wind, RUK says that solar,
marine energy, and energy storage technologies are also set to grow
exponentially in the years to come. And overall, it sees renewables providing 76%
of the UK's power needs by 2050, aided by green hydrogen use and flexible grid
system development.
The report notes that green hydrogen, produced
using renewable electricity, holds ‘huge potential’ as a zero-carbon
alternative to fossil fuels, in particular in heavy industry, shipping, and
heating homes. It says the fuel could become cost competitive in the UK more
quickly than in other countries, due to strong climate change policies &
high renewable capacity.
Greenpeace
plan
Greenpeace UK has outlined a post-C19 Green Recovery plan
which includes a clean power section that has much in common with RUK’s vision,
although it is more politically focused. In addition to wanting to go beyond the
Conservative Party manifesto pledge of 40 GW of total offshore wind generation
by 2030, Greenpeace call for a government commitment to targets of at least
40GW of solar and 30 GW of onshore wind by 2030.
Overall it wants to see ‘a strong pipeline of onshore wind, solar and offshore wind projects
throughout the 2020s by ensuring that the planned CfD auctions go ahead without
delay, at least every two years, and that no capacity limits are placed on any
of the competing technologies. For offshore wind, at least 4.5GW of projects
per year should be contracted at the next auction, expected to conclude in the
second half of 2021, & annual build-out levels should be increased even
further in auctions beyond that. Throughout the 2020s, around 2GW per year or
more of onshore wind, and around 4GW per year of solar should be contracted’.
Specifically, Greenpeace wants the government
to ‘take a more strategic approach to offshore wind grid infrastructure,
including increasing the number of grid connections to land shared between
several offshore wind farm’, since ‘this
will save costs, minimise onshore impacts by requiring fewer substations to be
developed, and reduce planning delays’. And on solar PV it says the government
should mandate, and where necessary provide additional funding (through capital
loans) for, ‘the procurement of solar
installations on the roofs of all public sector buildings where feasible,
enabling operational cost reductions & improved taxpayer value for money,
while boosting sector deployment’. It says ‘Quick action here could deliver private investment rapidly, supporting
the recovery’.
To help move things on, it wants the planning
regime streamlined for all renewables, so as ‘to optimise opportunities for developing new low cost energy projects
while avoiding harm to wildlife or important landscapes’. And to back it
all up, it wants ‘a
clear policy for transforming the electricity grid so that, by 2030, it can
deliver a reliable, flexible system with 80% renewable generation &
additional power use by electric vehicles and renewable heat systems. This
should include goals of around 15 GW of interconnection, 38 GW of storage and
18 GW of demand side response (DSR) capacity by 2030.’
It also looks to ‘innovative
policy and funding mechanisms to stimulate markets and support technological
development and cost reduction for renewable hydrogen.’ It
says ‘Renewable hydrogen capacity would
make use of excess renewable electricity generation and enable challenging
sectors such as shipping & industry to decarbonise. Support should be
prioritised for the installation of electrolysers, which use electricity to
produce hydrogen from water, especially along the east coast, where much power
from offshore wind comes ashore & where there are nearby industrial
facilities that could use the hydrogen, offering opportunities for economies of
scale.’ And finally it says that we should ‘avoid further investment in nuclear energy, which drains policy
attention & time away from more deliverable & cost-effective
solutions’.
So it’s somewhat more radical than the Renewable
UK’s scenario. Whereas, in that, renewables generation increases to 76% of the UK power mix
by 2050, with gas and nuclear making up the rest, Greenpeace want to have
renewables supplying 80% of power by 2030
and also some heat, and to avoid new nuclear. By 2050, in line with earlier
Greenpeace scenarios, renewables would then expand up to nearly100% in a zero
carbon post-2050 future.
Looking ahead
Long term projections along those lines are always tricky, as are
predictions of social impacts, but a new WWF report, Keeping us
Competitive, produced
by Vivid Economics, suggested that transitioning the UK to net zero emissions
could create at least 210,000 jobs in 2030 and 351,000 in 2050 from sectors
such as green buildings, electric vehicles and power. It also calculated that
the net zero transition could yield over £90bn of annual benefits to the UK
through improved health and living conditions, delivering economic gains that
significantly outweigh any costs.
There have been many reports saying the same sort
of thing for the UK and elsewhere- a zero carbon renewable future is the way
ahead, with significant social and ecological benefits. It’s not surprising
then that the pressure is mounting to take action on this, perhaps along the
line proposed by IPPR’s Environmental
Justice Commission, which has called for UK Recovery programme with
£30 billion a year allocated to shovel
ready green projects.
In the event,
nothing on that scale emerged from the government, just a one-year £2 bn ‘green
homes’ domestic energy saving grants
scheme, and £1 bn public building energy efficiency programme, as part of a
wider ‘plan for jobs’ recovery programme. That’s not to say it isn’t valuable. In terms of economic recovery, installing
better insulation and the like has the virtue of being a fast way to create
work. And in terms of climate policy, it cuts energy demand and hence emissions
from fossil fuel use. But to get to net zero emissions, there will be a need
more green energy supply, and that means upgrading the support system. RenewableUK says that if the Government lifts
the capacity caps it has imposed on the contracts for difference, the next CfD
auction round (due next year) could see renewables accelerating ahead, with over
£20bn of investment.
That’s more like it!
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