Can renewable energy deliver?

As we begin to see off Covid 19 in some locations, thoughts return to the larger battle- slowing climate change. The use of renewable energy is usually seen as a key to that. It is spreading rapidly and some claim that wind, solar and other renewables can and will become the dominant global energy sources within a few decades, thus avoiding major climate change problems.  Certainly concerns about climate change have been a key driver, leading to growing government support. However, the falling cost of renewable energy has also become a major driver. Some renewable energy technologies are now competitive across the board and costs continue to fall, with a new commercial dynamic adding impetus to their uptake. My new book asks will that trend be sufficient to ensure that renewables expand fast enough globally to limit climate change to survivable levels without imposing high costs?

There are certainly many who doubt that this is possible. Some critics argue that renewable energy systems are inherently unreliable and expensive, and look to nuclear power as an alternative non-fossil option, and possibly also to cleaning up fossil-fuel use.  The new book seeks to meet these claims head on and asks to what extent can renewables deliver a technologically and economically viable energy future, and whether other technical options, and energy policies to support them, are also needed?  It explores how important renewable energy technology might be, by looking at its progress so far and at its future potential and problems, in a context where other approaches are also on offer. Much has been promised from renewables, and, so far, they seem to be living up to the promises, as they accelerate ahead. The book looks at whether that can and will continue. No spoilers- but the answer is yes!  And I was pleased to get a strong positive reaction from Prof. Mark Jacobson, Stanford University, who said ‘This timely book provides an easily readable account of how renewable energy has emerged as the main driver of a transition away from fossil fuels. I highly recommend it for all readers interested in energy and climate.’

Jacobson and his team have of course produced a whole series of 100% renewables by 2050 scenarios. As I say in the book, while it may be possible to attain near that level in many countries, clearly there are social, economic and political issues to face, especially in some parts of the developing world.  Nevertheless, I argue that, ‘in terms of technology, while not enough attention is being paid to energy efficiency and demand reduction, progress is being made in most places on renewable supply, driven by falling costs, along with concerns about climate change.  That, on its own, may not be enough to bring about change on the scale needed, but it may help to start things off. In the past, renewables were sometimes seen by hard pressed developing countries as expensive and mostly irrelevant to their growing needs. Now, with lower costs, they are beginning to move center stage, and are increasingly being seen as vital for their development’.  

So, although, as I say, ‘it is easy to be depressed by the current often relatively slow progress in many countries’, and there are big issues ahead in the transport sector, ‘there are also grounds for hope that the huge global potential of renewables will be exploited, helping to avoid a global climate breakdown’. So I conclude, ‘While it may be true that the overall energy transition and the renewables expansion programme is taking time, and may be too slow, this is due to a mix technological factors and wider social, economic and political factors. The optimistic view is that the technology is mostly available, or can be made so, but we need the political will, and social and economic change, to create a viable way forward’.

That still leaves us with the issue of how much social and political change is needed – and what end-state are we aiming for, something I wrestle with in this book. At one extreme there are those who say we can make it through to a sustainable energy future with relatively minor reforms, life style adjustments and technical fixes, while others call for global social and political revolution and an end to consumerism and economic growth. It is a sometimes very polarised debate, with, for example, Bloomberg’s Michael Liebreich putting the essentially technological/market fix view that economic growth is vital for humanity, and that it is possible to continue with it, while  Prof. Tim Jackson from the University of Surrey says that it is not, and it is lethal for the planet.

Narrowing the focus a little to just energy issues, Australian academic Ted Trainer has argued, in a critique of a ‘100% renewables’ paper from Delucchi and Jacobson, that renewable energy could supply the world only if the world ‘embraces frugal lifestyles, small and highly self-sufficient local economies, and participatory and co-operative ways in an overall economy that is not driven by growth or market forces.’ In response, Delucchi and Jacobson said ‘This vision may or may not be desirable, but it was found in our study not to be necessary in order to power the world economically with wind, water, and solar energy’.

However, as I argue in my new book, while new energy technology may allow us to avoid having to make very radical social and lifestyle changes so as to deal with climate change, in wider ecological terms, more radical social and political changes may be needed if we want a sustainable future on a planet with finite resources and limited carrying capacity.  It is hard though to say exactly how radical the various changes will need to be in either context. But, at minimum, we will surely have to head for a sustainable global population levels, and for sustainable levels of consumption- decoupling consumption from prosperity as far possible. Not an easy task. You can see why ‘technical fixes’ are popular. They look easier! As this book shows, that may not always be the case: it may still be hard to force technical change  through. But more importantly, technical fixes may not be enough to deal with all our ecological problems. That debate will continue!