Harder going for green energy in the Covid 19 world?

Some say the tragic Coronavirus emergency means that climate change concerns will have to be put on the back burner, but they can’t be left aside for long – they also need urgent action.  Some of the things that need to be done to cut emissions may be hindered by Covid 19, others may be helped.

The central and overwhelming story is of course a horrible one, but there may be some  positive sides. Being hopeful, the Coronavirus may have created an awareness of the benefits of changes in how we use energy. The Coronavirus lock down in China and then elsewhere did show what the word might be like without so much fossil-fuel use– with less cars, trucks, factories and power plants spewing out toxic gases, and many fewer aircraft in flight, leading to air you could breathe and a big potential reduction in air pollution reductions and  respiratory diseases.  Certainly emissions fell in China as energy demand, and coal use, fell. To an extent then, grim though its impacts are, Covid 19 may also point to some positive outcomes, or at least opportunities for beneficial change.

However, some of the Covid 19 economic impact projections are very pessimistic, with a major global economic recession seen as likely, and that could make positive change harder, for example undermining the growth of renewables. Even in the short term, it’s been claimed that the economic slow down in China could mean delays in wind turbines production and installation and a 10-50% fall in wind turbine installation in 2020. It’s the same for solar PV: BNEF has cut its estimate for solar growth by 16%. More generally, COVID 19  may make positive eco-changes harder by shifting the policy focus from climate change, although it is also possible that, after COVID-19 is beaten, we may not just revert back to how things were done, but embrace new approaches.

It is early days yet, but a quick overview of options and areas may be useful – highlighting   possible positive and negative interactions between Covid 19 impacts and energy issues,  programmes and options. Aviation is probably the hardest nut to crack, but also arguably the one most visibly impacted by Covid 19.  It accounts for about 3% of global CO2 emissions – or at least it did before the Coronavirus emergency led to most flights being halted. Assuming the virus is eventually defeated and the aviation industry recovers to some extent, some say that it needs to reset itself radically. Revamps and redesigns may help a bit.  Airbus have been looking to the future with 20% less fuel use in their high tech ‘blended wing’ concept.  But that’s a way off, and it hardly makes a dent on what was a growing emissions problem. However, some are a bit more optimistic about the prospects for savings, and there are biofuel, hydrogen fuel cells/ battery power options. There are even solar power options. Even so, its going to take a while, and it seems unlikely that mass aviation can ever be fully greened.  Moreover, some don’t think its worth trying, and that, despite its pleas for aid, the industry should be not be helped to recover from its post Covid 19 collapsed state.

Road transport has also been heavily hit by the lockdown- many roads emptied. The need to keep road vehicle emissions low, after COVID 19, remains urgent, with cars being the largest single transport CO2 emitter by far, with many looking to electric vehicles as a viable way to help. Some fear that Covid 19 will lead to short term negative impacts on electric vehicle take up. However, in general, compared to aviation, more progress is being made in this sector, for example with mains-charged battery EV technology, and, for the longer term, with solar cars, like Aptera’s two seat PV assisted electric car, which can go 44 miles per day on a solar charge alone- assuming the availability of sunshine!

In general while there are some technical fixes for reducing emissions from cars (the worst offenders by far), planes and ships (the next worst), they may only be partial and marginal and overall its going to be hard to have a big impact in terms of emission reductions . That’s worrying, since transport generates about 30% of global carbon emissions. EVs may be the best new transport option so far- though they don’t help reduce congestion, or the need of more roads and parking spaces. What we really need is less driving (and flying) and more low carbon public transport- electric or hydrogen trains, buses and trams. As well as more cycling and walking. That’s a conclusion from an overview of the transport options I produced for my local University of the Third Age Science and Technology group.

I have focused above on transport, in part since, as well as being hit by Covid 19, it’s a key sector for emissions, and, compared with power generation, it’s an area in which decarbonisation has been slow to get started.  We have to do better. However, radical changes in this sector, and in the other sectors, may not be easy, given that the global economy is likely to be seriously depressed by Covid 19.

Nevertheless, some of the problems facing efforts to make changes may be eased slightly, since, tragically, there will be fewer of us, and the sad process of what some have grimly called ‘bloomer removal’ means fewer retired people to go on global tours, world cruises and the like. And possible less of an appetite for such things. So emissions could maybe be cut slightly in transport and elsewhere. But there will also be impacts well beyond transport and energy uses. Indeed, it’s hard to know where it all will stop. However, awful though its social impacts are, the Coronavirus outbreak may yet trigger some positive changes. After this massive global shock, some have looked to massive changes  in the post-virus world. Certainly it could be very different across the board.  But first we have to get through the Covid 19 crisis…and then we are going to need a coherent effort across all sectors to ensure that a sustainable approach is maintained.