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Showing posts from October, 2022

India - towards 100% renewable power by 2050

A new optimistic Nature paper from the LUT University in Finland looks to a key role being played by renewables for rapid transitioning of the power sector across states in India. Progress has been uneven at times, but LUT says that a renewables-based power system by 2050 could be ‘lower in cost than the current  coal dominated system’ and have ‘zero greenhouse gas emissions’ while providing ‘reliable electricity to around 1.7 billion people’.  Electricity generation would be based on solar PV, wind energy, and hydropower, while batteries and multi-fuel reciprocating internal combustion engines based on synthetic fuels provide the required flexibility to the power system. This transition, it says, would ‘address  multiple imperatives: affordability, accessibility, and sustainability without compromising economic growth’. Solar PV capacity increases in all the states during the transition, and from 2030 onwards, PV has a steady average annual growth rate of 35% across th...

Green futures 'will be cheap'

The UK may currently be going through a very erratic time politically, but a recent Oxford-based study suggests there may be some clarity ahead when it comes to energy issues. It asks ‘Is there a path forward that can get us to net-zero emissions cheaply and quickly?’ and its answer is: ‘Very likely, and the savings are probably quite large.’ Indeed, the savings could be very large, mainly since, the team says ‘its analysis supports other recent efforts using up-to-date data and technology assumptions that conclude that the green energy transition may be cheap’.   It notes that the 2022 IPCC AR6 estimates that the additional cost of decarbonizing the energy system in order to have a greater than 67% chance of keeping warming below 2°C corresponds to a GDP loss in 2050 of 1.3%–2.7%. But the Oxford team study suggests that  ‘there is likely no cost at all—the transition is expected to be a net economic benefit, raising future GDP’.  Is this credible? The teams ‘empiri...

Renewables booming- but a windfall tax

 Renewables met 100% of global electricity demand growth during the first half of 2022. So says the ‘Global Electricity Mid-Year Insights 2022’ from Ember , a global energy think tank. In fact, it says there was a 389 TWh increase in the demand for electricity in the first half of 2022 compared to the first half of 2021, whereas the rise in renewables supply was actually a  bit more – 416TWh. That’s not surprising given that renewables are getting so cheap- including in the UK, with wind and solar the most prolificate new sources across world. However, that in turn may create a bit of a problem for older renewables, set up under quite lucrative subsidy schemes, based on now high gas prices, like the Renewables Obligation in the UK. As I have noted in earlier posts, there is pressure on them to switch to the more competitive CfD system.   Certainly the RO system is based on adding a subsidy to wholesale gas prices, so something has to change, since gas prices are now so hi...

Green energy and me - a personal aside on a busy life

In my old age, heading for 80 next year, and with recent health worries, it is maybe timely for me to look back at the past and at how I managed to end up as an emeritus University professor, focusing on renewable energy. So, fresh from a holiday in Spain, as something of change from my usual current energy policy posts, here’s a brief bio- a version of what I have recently written for my old school magazine, Oak Leaves. It may be of interests to those contemplating a career in the renewable energy area. Going back to 1954, when I was living on a council estate in Mitcheldean, on the edge of the, by then, mostly-closed Forest of Dean coal field, I had failed the 11 plus exam, and was destined for a secondary modern school, but had been given a second chance via an interview for marginal cases. So I had ended up at East Dean Grammar School in Cinderford, in the center of the Forest, in effect by the back door.  A lot of my life has been similar- taking indirect routes. Though I did ...