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UK ‘Green light’ least cost 2050 energy scenario

Prof. Mark Barrett at University College London has produced an update of his Green Light UK 2050 scenario, with a few additions from the 2023 version. The conclusions remain the same: renewables can supply just about all power needed. But some of the new details are interesting: aviation can’t be decarbonised easily, so we have to compensate with atmospheric carbon removal- Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage (DACCS). In 2050, his scenario has offshore wind generating 931 TWh, which is 83% of total generation. Solar generates 118 TWh and onshore wind 40 TWh. Nuclear generates 25 TWh or 2% of total and there is 57 GW of flexible generation plant which outputs 3 TWh, operating at a capacity factor of under 1%. He says that ‘an alternative assumption that flexible generation uses stored hydrogen is also modelled but optimisation shows this to increase costs’.  He notes that ‘in the least cost 2050 systems 20-30% of potential generation is spilled, and this is, at first sight, a s...
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A golden nuclear future: Sizewell C gets the go ahead

The UK government has decided that the huge new 3.2 GW Sizewell C nuclear plant proposed by EDF for the Suffolk coast should go ahead . It will be costly- the estimated construction cost is now put at £38 billion, up from an earlier estimate of £20bn.  The UK government will be the largest shareholder, with a 44.9% stake, while EDF’s share has fallen to 12.5%. Centrica will take a 15% share, while La Caisse, a Canadian investment group, will hold 20% and investment manager Amber will take an initial 7.6% stake. UK power consumers will start paying a share of the construction costs under the ‘RAB’ Regulated Asset Base funding system as soon as building starts- presumably later this year. They and taxpayers may also end up facing any cost overruns due to delays.  As the BBC noted ‘The project will be funded with a mixture of equity and debt - £8.8bn in equity from the government and the other investors, and £36.6bn in debt that will be provided by the National Wealth Fund (NWF)...
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UK public support for renewables falls- slightly

 The latest Public Attitudes Tracker from the UK Department of Energy Security and Net Zero says UK public support for renewables is down from 87% in 2021 to 80% now, with opposition rising from 1 to 4%, with solar and wind loosing some support. Solar is at 86%, down from 88% last year, offshore wind is 80%, down from 83%, on shore wind is 73%, down from 77%. Only 37% say they’d be happy with an onshore wind farm nearby, down from 43%, while just 47% support local solar farms, down from 53%, with local opposition at 14%, up from 9%. Crucially, only 69% believe the renewables industry delivers economic benefits to the UK, down from 74%.  You might see that as a Farage effect, given that his Reform party is strongly anti-renewables and very critical of the Labour governments Net Zero policy -  a  political view now it seems shared by the Conservative party .  There does seem to have been more media coverage of views like this, with local opposition to solar farm...
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Offshore wind – big but less than hoped?

A new study from the LUT University energy team in Finland assesses offshore wind power's techno-economic potential through hourly simulations & cost calculations, considering three different turbine spacings.  The results indicate ‘increasing economic potential at various cost thresholds, driven by declining floating turbine cost’, with regional variations depending on ‘water depth and distance to high-wind resources’.  However, turbine spacing in arrays is all important: ‘sparse installation density yields higher economic potential under 30 €/MWh due to reduced wake losses’. Wake interactions have recently become an important concern, since they reduce the amount of energy that can be captured by large wind arrays and tall turbines, with research  under way on this in the UK, and elsewhere.  For example, a Belgian study claims that one in five offshore wind farms in the North Sea could suffer from energy losses of 10% or more, in some cases up to 18%, over t...
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Nuclear Reliability- an uncertain route

 Nuclear energy provides reliable, baseload, low-carbon electricity that complements the variability of wind and solar’. That, boiled down, is the UK governments view, as relayed in a response by the Department of Energy Security and New Zero to a critique by Prof Steve Thomas and Paul Dorfman. Well, none if it holds up to examination. Low carbon? Not if you include uranium mining, waste handling and plant decommissioning. Baseload? A dodgy idea!  A Department of Energy minister had previously admitted that ‘although some power plants are referred to as baseload generators, there is no formal definition of this term’ and the Department ‘does not place requirements on generation from particular technologies’.  A key point is that nuclear plants are not that reliable- if nothing else, they have to be shut down occasionally for maintenance and refuelling. Add to that unplanned outages, and nuclear plants are not very sensible as backup - especially given their high capital ...
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Nuclear- a viable UK option? There are alternatives..

‘All of the expert advice says nuclear has a really important role to play in the energy system. So said UK Energy Secretary Ed Milliband, announcing an extra £14.2bn allocation for the proposed new Sizewell C reactor. Putting it charitably, he seems to have been poorly informed.  As I noted in an earlier post, there are many expert studies suggesting that there is no need for nuclear and that, in fact, it is a poor choice compared with renewables - which are cheaper as a way to respond to climate change . At least one of the submissions that I have seen to the ongoing Nuclear Roadmap Inquiry , run by the energy security and net zero Select Committee, takes a similar line- nuclear is too costly, slow and unreliable, with offshore wind being a better option.  However, it seems that the Select Committee will not start work on its report until later in the year, so it may be a while before we can see the results of its deliberations and all the submissions. And, meanwhile, the ...
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AI and Nuclear Power - a perfect match?

A new report on Artificial Intelligence (AI) from Greenpeace, produced by Öko-Institut in Germany, says that, by 2030, carbon emissions from AI datacentres will be six times the 2023 level, and notes that ‘leading players in the field of AI are increasingly turning to nuclear energy to meet the growing electricity demands of their data centres.’  It says that Google explicitly defines nuclear as clean energy and has signed agreements to purchase electricity from small modular reactors (SMRs).  Amazon similarly justifies its investments in nuclear and has signed three new agreements to support nuclear projects, including SMRs. Meta has, it says, gone a step further, expressing interest in developing its own nuclear power projects specifically to power its AI data centres. And in addition to its support for a revamp of old closed Three Mile Island plant, Microsoft has been promoting ‘advanced nuclear’ as a key part of its carbon-free electricity strategy. Greenpeace notes that ...
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